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A Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) for Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Wilmar Cabrera
  • Jorge Hurtado
  • Miguel Morales
  • Juan Sebastián Rojas

Abstract

The most recent global financial crisis (2008-2009) highlighted the importance of systemic risk and promoted academic interest to develop a wide set of warning indicators, which are mechanisms to identify systemically important institutions and global systemic risk indexes. Using the methodology proposed by Holló et al. (2012), along with some considerations from Hakkio & Keeton (2009), this document comprises a Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) for Colombia. The index takes into account several dimensions related to financial markets (credit institutions, housing market, external sector, money market and local bond market) and is constructed using portfolio theory, considering the contagion among dimensions. Results suggest the peak of the global financial crisis (September 2008) as the most important episode of systemic risk in Colombia between 2000-2014. Additionally, real activity seems to be adversely affected by an unexpected increase of the systemic risk index.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilmar Cabrera & Jorge Hurtado & Miguel Morales & Juan Sebastián Rojas, 2014. "A Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) for Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011697, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamundio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 174-220, December.
    9. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Alejandro Martínez-Cruz, 2021. "Indicador Combinado de Liquidez para la Deuda Pública Local Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 1167, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Christian Brownlees & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Alice Monti, 2018. "Evaluating The Accuracy Of Tail Risk Forecasts For Systemic Risk Measurement," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-25, June.
    3. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan & Valdivia Coria, Daney David, 2021. "Impacto del Stress Sistémico en el Crecimiento Económico: Caso Guatemala [Systemic Stress Impact on Economic Growth: The case of Guatemala]," MPRA Paper 110669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Laura Pareja Restrepo, 2016. "Financial Interdependence and Contagion: the transmission of financial stress from the United States to Latin America," Documentos CEDE 014235, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic Risk; Risk Indicators; Financial Stability; Early-Warning-Indicators; Multivariate GARCH.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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