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Un Indice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Fernando Melo

    ()

  • Fabio H.Nieto
  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • Yaneth Rocío Betancourt

    ()

  • Juan David Barón

Abstract

Dentro de la teoría de los ciclos económicos, la metodología de indicadores económicos coincidentes y líderes ha jugado un papel importante en la descripción y pronóstico del estado de la actividad económica. Una forma utilizada para calcular índices compuestos de variables indicadoras es el uso de modelos de probabilidad explícitos, en los cuales el índice coincidente corresponde a una variable no observable que representa el estado general de la economía y permite identificar aquello que se busca predecir con el índice líder. En este documento se calcula un índice coincidente para la actividad económica de Colombia utilizando nuevas técnicas econométricas y corresponde a la primera parte de un proyecto de indicadores para la economía colombiana en el cual se pretende estimar un índice lider.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H.Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yaneth Rocío Betancourt & Juan David Barón, 2001. "Un Indice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 195, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Martha Misas A. & Marla Ripoll N. & Enrique López E., 1995. "Una Descripción Del Ciclo Industrial En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003707, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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    7. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 377, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    9. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posda & José Fernando Escobar, 2004. "El crédito y sus factores determinantes: el caso colombiano (1990 -2004)," Borradores de Economia 311, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. repec:col:000152:015779 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual de la actividad económica en Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 495-548, octubre-d.
    4. Desirée Castrillo R. & Carlos Mora G. & Carlos Torres G., 2010. "Mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en Costa Rica: periodo 1991-2007," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 549-599, octubre-d.
    5. Fabio H. Nieto, 2003. "Identifiability Of Acoincident Index Model For The Colombian Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002799, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2003:i:43:p:8-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Martha Misas A. & Carlos Esteban Posada P & Diego Mauricio Vásquez E, 2003. "¿Está determinado el nivel de precios por las expectativas de dinero y producto en Colombia?," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 21(43), pages 8-31, June.
    8. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2008. "La tasa de interés natural en Colombia," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 164-201 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    9. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013610, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    10. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007129, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    11. Jiménez Polanco, Miguel Alejandro & López Hawa, Nabil & Ramírez Escoboza, Merlym, 2016. "Indicadores Compuestos de Actividad Económica por sectores para la República Dominicana
      [Composite Indicators of Economic Activity for the Dominican Republic]
      ," MPRA Paper 75916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sandra V. Rozo V., 2008. "Nuevo enfoque para la construcción de un único indicador líder de la actividad económica colombiana," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, December.
    13. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio Nieto & Mario Ramos V., 2003. "A Leading Index For The Colombian Economic Activity," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001920, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    14. Marco Antonio Laguna Vargas, 2010. "Características de la inflación importada en Bolivia: ¿puede contenerse con política cambiaria?," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 463-493, octubre-d.
    15. Pablo Galaso & Sandra Rodriguez, 2014. "A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 14-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    16. Fabio H. Nieto, 2003. "Identifiability of a Coincident Index Model for the Colombian Economy," Borradores de Economia 242, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    Keywords

    Estado de la economía; índice coincidente; modelo de estados.;

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