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¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?

Author

Listed:
  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • Diego Mauricio Vásquez

    ()

Abstract

La corriente tradicional de investigación conocida como la teoríacuantitativa del dinero" ha sostenido que la cantidad de éste es elprincipal factor determinante del nivel de precios. Pero no siempre hahabido un consenso al respecto. Por ejemplo, hay quienes interpretanla ejecución de la estrategia denominada "inflación objetivo" comosíntoma de una supuesta irrelevancia de la cantidad de dinero para ladeterminación del nivel de precios o de su tasa de aumento, la inflación.El objetivo del presente trabajo es someter a prueba la hipótesiscuantitativa para el caso colombiano pero en el siguiente sentidoespecífico: lo que determina el nivel de precios es el juicio de los agenteseconómicos sobre la magnitud y la evolución de los componentes permanentes del dinero nominal y del producto real, entendidos éstos como los valores actuales esperados de sustrayectorias futuras, y que los factores juzgados como transitorios carecen de importanciapara la determinación de dicho nivel.La verificación de tal hipótesis se realiza mediante un procedimiento de optimización nolineal, que considera la aplicación del filtro de Kalman y la estimación por máximaverosimilitud de los parámetros de una representación estado-espacio. Dicharepresentación se deriva de un modelo macroeconómico de equilibrio generalintertemporal con expectativas racionales. Este trabajo se lleva a cabo con datos anualespara el período 1954-2000."
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, 2001. "¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 191, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:191
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Felipe Londoño & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, June.
    2. Miguel Urrutia, 2002. "UNA VISION ALTERNATIVA: La Política Monetaria y Cambiaria en la Ültima Década," Borradores de Economia 207, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Ignacio Lozano, 2009. "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian case," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 65-95, January-J.
    4. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2008. "La tasa de interés natural en Colombia," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 164-201 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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