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¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?

  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • Diego Mauricio Vásquez

    ()

La corriente tradicional de investigación teórica y empírica conocida como la “teoría cuantitativa del dinero” ha sostenido que la cantidad de éste es el principal factor determinante del nivel de precios. Pero no siempre ha habido un consenso al respecto. Por ejemplo, hay quienes interpretan la ejecución de la estrategia denominada “inflation targeting” (IT), utilizada en la actualidad por muchos bancos centrales para alcanzar una meta de inflación, entre ellos el colombiano, como síntoma de una supuesta irrelevancia de la cantidad de dinero para la determinación del nivel de precios o de su tasa de aumento, la inflación1. Es más, entre los funcionarios encargados de la política monetaria de Estados Unidos2 habría una tendencia inclinada a rechazar las enseñanzas de la teoría cuantitativa, a juzgar por la siguiente afirmación: “A consensus has emerged among practitioners that the instrument of monetary policy ought to be the short-term interest rate, that policy should be focused on the control of inflation, and that inflation can be reduced by increasing short-term interest rates. At the center of this consensus is a rejection of the quantity theory. ...” (Alvarez et al. [2001]). Aunque no creemos que exista necesariamente incompatibilidad entre la teoría cuantitativa y la estrategia IT o los modelos más utilizados para explicar y defender tal estrategia, si es indudable que tanto su diseño como su ejecución y divulgación en la opinión pública pueden tener diversas interpretaciones, siendo algunas contrarias a dicha teoría3. A nuestro jucio, el hecho de que la estrategia IT sea percibida, en ocasiones, como “anticuantitativista” es una de las razones para volver a poner a prueba la hipótesis cuantitativa según la cual la cantidad de dinero y el ingreso real son determinantes fundamentales del nivel de precios.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 191.

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  1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Paul Soderlind, 2004. "What if the Fed had been an inflation nutter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1471-1473.
  3. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003678, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Martha Misas Arango & Hugo Liveros Camacho & Jose Dario Uribe Escobar, 1994. "Especificación Y Estabilidad De La Demanda Por Dinero En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  5. Jurgen A. Doornik & Henrik Hansen, 2008. "An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 927-939, December.
  6. Söderlind, Paul, 1998. "Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 256, Stockholm School of Economics.
  7. Luis Fernando Melo V. & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt G. & Juan David Barón, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económico de Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 19(40), pages 46-88, Diciembre.
  8. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
  9. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Karen Cabos & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2001. "Controlling Inflation in Euroland," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20102, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  11. Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  12. Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Warren E. Weber, 2001. "Interest rates and inflation," Working Papers 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, . "Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules," Borradores de Economia 125, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  14. Allan H. Meltzer, 2001. "Money and monetary policy: an essay in honor of Darryl Francis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 23-32.
  15. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
  16. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Indeterminacy, Bubbles, and the Fiscal Theory of Price Level Determination," GSIA Working Papers 1998-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  17. Luis Eduardo Arango, 1999. "Componentes no observados de la inflación en Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  18. Fung, Ben & Mitnick, Scott & Remolona, Eli, 1999. "Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets," Working Papers 99-6, Bank of Canada.
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