IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/191.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?

Author

Listed:
  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • Diego Mauricio Vásquez

    ()

Abstract

La corriente tradicional de investigación teórica y empírica conocida como la “teoría cuantitativa del dinero” ha sostenido que la cantidad de éste es el principal factor determinante del nivel de precios. Pero no siempre ha habido un consenso al respecto. Por ejemplo, hay quienes interpretan la ejecución de la estrategia denominada “inflation targeting” (IT), utilizada en la actualidad por muchos bancos centrales para alcanzar una meta de inflación, entre ellos el colombiano, como síntoma de una supuesta irrelevancia de la cantidad de dinero para la determinación del nivel de precios o de su tasa de aumento, la inflación1. Es más, entre los funcionarios encargados de la política monetaria de Estados Unidos2 habría una tendencia inclinada a rechazar las enseñanzas de la teoría cuantitativa, a juzgar por la siguiente afirmación: “A consensus has emerged among practitioners that the instrument of monetary policy ought to be the short-term interest rate, that policy should be focused on the control of inflation, and that inflation can be reduced by increasing short-term interest rates. At the center of this consensus is a rejection of the quantity theory. ...” (Alvarez et al. [2001]). Aunque no creemos que exista necesariamente incompatibilidad entre la teoría cuantitativa y la estrategia IT o los modelos más utilizados para explicar y defender tal estrategia, si es indudable que tanto su diseño como su ejecución y divulgación en la opinión pública pueden tener diversas interpretaciones, siendo algunas contrarias a dicha teoría3. A nuestro jucio, el hecho de que la estrategia IT sea percibida, en ocasiones, como “anticuantitativista” es una de las razones para volver a poner a prueba la hipótesis cuantitativa según la cual la cantidad de dinero y el ingreso real son determinantes fundamentales del nivel de precios.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, 2001. "¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 191, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:191
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.12134/5209/be_191.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    2. Jurgen A. Doornik & Henrik Hansen, 2008. "An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 927-939, December.
    3. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
    4. Martha Misas Arango & Hugo Liveros Camacho & Jose Dario Uribe Escobar, 1994. "Especificación Y Estabilidad De La Demanda Por Dinero En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 13(25), pages 97-120, June.
    5. Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas & Warren E. Weber, 2001. "Interest Rates and Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 219-225, May.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
    8. Fabio H. Nieto & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "About a Coincident Index for the State of the Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001938, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. Luis Eduardo Arango, 1999. "Componentes no observados de la inflación en Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, June.
    10. McCallum, Bennett T., 2001. "Indeterminacy, bubbles, and the fiscal theory of price level determination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 19-30, February.
    11. Luis Fernando Melo V. & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt G. & Juan David Barón, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económico de Colombia," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 19(40), pages 46-88, Diciembre.
    12. Allan H. Meltzer, 2001. "Money and monetary policy: an essay in honor of Darryl Francis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 23-32.
    13. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    14. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    15. Juan Manuel Julio R. & Javier Gómez P., 1998. "Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 17(34), pages 89-117, Diciembre.
    16. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003678, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    17. Karen Cabos & Nikolaus Siegfried, 2004. "Controlling inflation in Euroland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 549-558.
    18. Paul Soderlind, 2004. "What if the Fed had been an inflation nutter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1471-1473.
    19. Fung, Ben & Mitnick, Scott & Remolona, Eli, 1999. "Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 99-6, Bank of Canada.
    20. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Urrutia, 2002. "UNA VISION ALTERNATIVA: La Política Monetaria y Cambiaria en la Ültima Década," Borradores de Economia 207, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2008. "La tasa de interés natural en Colombia," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 164-201 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    3. Andrés Felipe Londoño & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, Junio.
    4. Ignacio Lozano, 2009. "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian case," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 65-95, January-J.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.