IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/003309.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Outpout Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty And Its Effect On Policy Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Manuel Julio

    ()

  • Javier Gómez

    ()

Abstract

The authors propose a short run model for the monetary transmission mechanism in which the output gap is modelled as an unobserved variable. By estimating this model using maximum likelihood on a Kalman Filter, the authors find an estimate of the unobserved output gap as well as its estimation uncertainty. The performance of monetary rules is studied both with certainty on the output gap values as well as with estimation uncertainty. Although the estimated gap is more reasonable than some other estimates proposed for Colombia, it is estimated with a considerable amount of uncertainty. In fact, the gap is not significantly different from zero in all but five quarter. This result amounts to say that we can not be sure about the sign or value of the gap except when the economy faces an unusual rate of growth. Moreover, we found that potential output does not differ statistically from a linear trend, thus, the gap may be understood as deviations from a linear trend, being the money surprises the source of this deviations. This result may be due to the sample length. In addition, we estimated the optimal linear policy rule with and without uncertainty and used it as a benchmark to evaluate the Taylor rule and the historical data, By introducing output gap estimation uncertainty the variance of the target variables increases, and so the reaction of the authority is smaller, Finally, Colombian historical results resemble those of an economy under a Taylor rule with uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, 1999. "Outpout Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty And Its Effect On Policy Rules," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003309, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003309
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra125.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 326-334.
    2. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Frank Smets, 1998. "Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?," BIS Working Papers 60, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 113-129.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martha Misas A. & Carlos Esteban Posada P & Diego Mauricio Vásquez E, 2003. "¿Está determinado el nivel de precios por las expectativas de dinero y producto en Colombia?," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 21(43), pages 8-31, June.
    2. Martha Misas A & Enrique López E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 19(40), pages 5-45, December.
    3. Remberto Rhenals & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga, 2008. "An Optimal Taylor Rule for Colombia, 1991-2006," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, pages 9-39.
    4. Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 184, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. repec:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:3:p:389-407 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2008. "Relevancia de los datos en tiempo real en la estimación de la regla de Taylor para Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÍA 005421, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
    7. Andrés González & Sergio Ocampo & Julian Pérez Amaya & Diego Rodríguez, 2012. "Output gap and Neutral interest measures for Colombia," Borradores de Economia 726, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Julio, Juan Manuel & Cobo, Adolfo, 2000. "The Relationship between Wages and Prices in Colombia," MPRA Paper 29069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jul 2000.
    9. Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 1998. "Reglas Monetarias En Una Economía Pequeña Y Abierta," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 17(33), pages 61-84, July.
    10. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2003:i:43:p:8-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2006. "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition Toa Stable Lvel Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003613, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    12. Jesus Otero & Manuel Ramirez, 2002. "On the determinants of the inflation rate in Colombia: a disequilibrium market approach," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 003296, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    13. Rhenals M., Remberto & Saldarriaga, Juan Pablo, 2008. "Una regla de Taylor óptima para Colombia, 1991-2006," REVISTA LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, November.
    14. Andrés González & Sergio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2012. "Output gap and Neutral interest measures for Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009870, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    15. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2011. "Datos en tiempo real:una aplicación a la regla de taylor en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(24), pages 373-394, January-J.
    16. Carlos Estaban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, 2006. "¿No importa la cantidad de dinero?: Inflation Targeting" y la teoría cuantitativa"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003816, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    17. Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
    18. J. Sebastián Amador-Torres, 2016. "Finance neutral potential output: an evaluation on an emerging market monetary policy context," Borradores de Economia 958, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:003309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.