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Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Manuel Julio R.
  • Javier G�mez P.

Abstract

The authors propose a short run model for the monetary transmission mechanism in which the output gap is model as an unobserved variable. By estimating this model using maximum likelihood on a Kalman Filter, the authors find an estimate of the unobserved output gap as well as its estimation uncertainty. The performance of monetary rules is studied both with certainty on the output gap values as well as with estimation uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio R. & Javier G�mez P., 1998. "Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 17(34), pages 89-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:005410
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.3403
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    Cited by:

    1. Remberto Rhenals & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga, 2008. "An Optimal Taylor Rule for Colombia, 1991-2006," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 69, pages 9-39, Julio-Dic.
    2. Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 2798, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2008. "Relevancia de los datos en tiempo real en la estimación de la regla de Taylor para Colombia," Documentos de Economía 5421, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    4. Martha Misas A. & Carlos Esteban Posada P & Diego Mauricio V�squez E, 2003. "¿Está determinado el nivel de precios por las expectativas de dinero y producto en Colombia?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 21(43), pages 8-31.
    5. Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
    6. Juan Manuel Julio Rom�n, 2006. "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition Toa Stable Lvel Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3613, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Martha Misas A & Enrique L�pez E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 19(40), pages 5-45.
    8. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    9. Julio, Juan Manuel & Cobo, Adolfo, 2000. "The Relationship between Wages and Prices in Colombia," MPRA Paper 29069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jul 2000.
    10. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2003:i:43:p:8-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jesus Otero & Manuel Ramirez, 2002. "On the determinants of the inflation rate in Colombia: a disequilibrium market approach," Borradores de Investigación 3296, Universidad del Rosario.
    12. Remberto Rhenals M. & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga, 2008. "Una regla de Taylor óptima para Colombia, 1991-2006," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    13. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2011. "Datos en tiempo real:una aplicación a la regla de taylor en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(24), pages 373-394, January-J.
    14. Jorge Enrique Restrepo Londoño, 1998. "Reglas monetarias en una economía pequeña y abierta," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 17(33), pages 61-84, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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