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El crédito y sus factores determinantes: el caso colombiano (1990 -2004)

  • Luz Adriana Flórez

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posda

    ()

  • José Fernando Escobar

    ()

A fin de interpretar el desempeño del crédito bancario observado durante los años 90 y principios del actual decenio en Colombia, se construyó un modelo teórico de equilibrio general dinámico. Además, se puso a prueba econométrica la ecuación generada en tal modelo que establece una relación de equilibrio entre depósitos, crédito y tasa de interés activa (con datos del período 1990:01 - 2004:04). Las pruebas econométricas y los impulsos-respuestas (estos últimos obtenidos gracias a la metodología de "tendencias comunes" permiten considerar plausibles dos hipótesis: a) existe una relación de equilibrio entre depósitos, crédito y tasa de interés activa como la que se deduce del modelo teórico, y b) la crisis de finales de los 90 fue una ruptura transitoria del equilibrio y no un cambio estructural, así que la situación actual (junio de 2004) puede entenderse como una etapa de retorno al equilibrio.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 311.

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  1. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H.Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yaneth Rocío Betancourt & Juan David Barón, . "Un Indice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 195, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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  3. Enrique López & Adolfo Barajas & Hugo Oliveros, 2001. "¿ Por qué en Colombia el Crédito al Sector Privado es tan Reducido?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003787, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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  11. Elosegui, Pedro Luis, 2003. "Aggregate risk, credit rationing and capital accumulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 668-696.
  12. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
  13. Fama, Eugene F., 1980. "Banking in the theory of finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 39-57, January.
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  15. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
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