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El crédito y sus factores determinantes: el caso colombiano (1990 -2004)

Author

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  • Luz Adriana Flórez
  • Carlos Esteban Posda
  • José Fernando Escobar

Abstract

A fin de interpretar el desempeño del crédito bancario observado durante los años 90 y principios del actual decenio en Colombia, se construyó un modelo teórico de equilibrio general dinámico. Además, se puso a prueba econométrica la ecuación generada en tal modelo que establece una relación de equilibrio entre depósitos, crédito y tasa de interés activa (con datos del período 1990:01 - 2004:04). Las pruebas econométricas y los impulsos-respuestas (estos últimos obtenidos gracias a la metodología de "tendencias comunes" permiten considerar plausibles dos hipótesis: a) existe una relación de equilibrio entre depósitos, crédito y tasa de interés activa como la que se deduce del modelo teórico, y b) la crisis de finales de los 90 fue una ruptura transitoria del equilibrio y no un cambio estructural, así que la situación actual (junio de 2004) puede entenderse como una etapa de retorno al equilibrio.

Suggested Citation

  • Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posda & José Fernando Escobar, 2004. "El crédito y sus factores determinantes: el caso colombiano (1990 -2004)," Borradores de Economia 311, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:311
    DOI: 10.32468/be.311
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    1. Villar Gómez Leonardo & David M. Salamanca Rojas & Andrés Murcia Pabón, 2005. "Crédito, represión financiera y flujos de capitales en Colombia: 1974-2003," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Depósitos bancarios; crédito; tasa de interés; vector de corrección de errores estructural; tendencias comunes.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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