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Crédito, Represión Financiera y Flujos de Capitales en Colombia 1974-2003

  • Leonardo Villar Gómez

    ()

  • David M. Salamanca Rojas

    ()

  • Andrés Murcia Pabón

    ()

Este trabajo analiza los vínculos entre crédito doméstico, flujos externos de capital y regulación financiera en Colombia en el período comprendido entre 1974 y 2003. Para ese propósito se incluye una visión histórica sobre la evolución de las variables y se hacen análisis cuantitativos sobre los determinantes del grado de profundización financiera, utilizando métodos de descomposición contable y ejercicios econométricos sencillos. Se observa que los ciclos en el crédito doméstico al sector privado en Colombia han coincidido con ciclos en la misma dirección en los flujos externos de capital. Ese comportamiento procíclico del crédito ha sido reforzado además por la política de regulación financiera. Entre 1974 y 1991, la prociclicidad de la política surgió fundamentalmente del comportamiento de los coeficientes de encaje requerido. En el período más reciente, esos coeficientes se movieron en forma menos procíclica. Durante la crisis que se inició en 1998, incluso, la política de encajes fue abiertamente contracíclica. En esta última etapa, sin embargo, la introducción del impuesto a las transacciones financieras actuó en la dirección contraria y reforzó la caída en el crédito. El resultado neto es que el grado de profundización financiera en Colombia a finales de 2003 se ubicaba por debajo de los niveles que tenía en 1974. Esos niveles son extremadamente bajos en comparación con los de economías desarrolladas o con los de economías en desarrollo exitosas.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 322.

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  1. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  3. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-86, June.
  4. Roberto Junguito & Hernán Rincón, 2004. "La Política Fiscal En El Siglo Xx En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003052, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
  6. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
  7. Leonardo Villar Gómez & David Salamanca Rojas, 2005. "Un Modelo Teórico Sobre Crédito, Represión Financiera Y Flujos De Capital," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003688, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posda & José Fernando Escobar, . "El crédito y sus factores determinantes: el caso colombiano (1990 -2004)," Borradores de Economia 311, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Ross Levine, 2004. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 02/53, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 467-482.
  12. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125520 is not listed on IDEAS
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