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Crédito, represión financiera y flujos de capitales en Colombia: 1974-2003

  • Villar Gómez Leonardo


  • David M. Salamanca Rojas


  • Andrés Murcia Pabón


El grado de profundización financiera en Colombia, medido por la relación entre el crédito al sector privado y el PIB, se ubicaba a finales de 2003 por debajo de los niveles que tenía treinta años atrás. Esos niveles son extremadamente bajos en comparación con los de economías desarrolladas y con los de economías en desarrollo exitosas. Este trabajo analiza los vínculos entre dicho indicador de profundización, los flujos externos de capital y la regulación financiera en Colombia, entre 1974 y 2003. Con métodos de descomposición contable y ejercicios econométricos sencillos, se presenta una visión histórica y se hacen análisis cuantitativos sobre sus determinantes. Se observa que los ciclos en el crédito doméstico al sector privado en Colombia han coincidido con ciclos en la misma dirección en los flujos externos de capital y que ese comportamiento procíclico del crédito ha sido reforzado por la política de regulación financiera.

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Volume (Year): (2005)
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Handle: RePEc:col:000090:002237
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  1. Leonardo Villar Gómez & David M. Salamanca Rojas, . "Un Modelo Teórico sobre Crédito, Represión Financiera y Flujos de Capital," Borradores de Economia 323, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 02/53, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
  4. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, . "Financial Dependence and Growth," CRSP working papers 344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  5. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  7. Roberto Junguito & Hernán Rincón, 2004. "La Política Fiscal En El Siglo Xx En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003052, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posda & José Fernando Escobar, . "El crédito y sus factores determinantes: el caso colombiano (1990 -2004)," Borradores de Economia 311, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 1999. "Finance and the sources of growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2057, The World Bank.
  10. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 467-482.
  11. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934 Elsevier.
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