Informal Labor Markets and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
This paper examines the adjustment of developing country labor markets to macroeconomic shocks. It models a two sector labor market: a formal salaried (tradable) sector that may or may not be affected by union or legislation induced wage rigidities, and an unregulated (nontradable) self-employment sector facing liquidity constraints to entry. This is embedded in a standard small economy macro model that permits the derivation of patterns of comovement among relative salaried/self-employed incomes, salaried/self-employed sector sizes and the real exchange rate with respect to different types of shocks in contexts with and without wage rigidities. The paper then explores time series data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to test for cointegrating relationships corresponding to the patterns predicted by theory. We identify two types of regime. The first corresponds to periods where demand shocks to the nontradable sector offer new opportunities to (informal) entrepreneurs, the informal sector expands “procyclically,” and the exchange rate overshoots toward appreciation in the short run, or remains at its productivity determined levels. The second corresponds to periods of negative shocks to the formal salaried sector in the presence of wage rigidities where the sector plays a more traditional “buffer” role during downturns.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Adam Smith Building, Glasgow G12 8RT|
Phone: 0141 330 4618
Fax: 0141 330 4940
Web page: http://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/business/research/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-666, September.
- Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991.
"Cointegration: how short is the long run?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
- Hamilton, Jonathan & Thisse, Jacques-Francois & Zenou, Yves, 2000.
"Wage Competition with Heterogeneous Workers and Firms,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 453-472, July.
- Hamilton, Jonathan & Thisse, Jacques-François & Zenou, Yves, 1999. "Wage Competition with Heterogeneous Workers and Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 2141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- HAMILTON, Jonathan & THISSE, Jacques-François & ZENOU, Yves, "undated". "Wage competition with heterogeneous workers and firms," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1463, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Norbert Fiess & Marco fugazza & William Maloney, 2002.
"Exchange Rate Appreciations, Labor Market Rigidities, and Informality,"
2005_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Fugazza, Marco & Fiess, Norbert M. & Maloney, William, 2002. "Exchange rate appreciations, labor market rigidities, and informality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2771, The World Bank.
- Loayza, Norman V. & Rigolini, Jamele, 2006. "Informality trends and cycles," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4078, The World Bank.
- James J. Heckman & Carmen Pagés, 2004.
"Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean,"
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number heck04-1.
- James Heckman & Carmen Pages, 2003. "Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean," NBER Working Papers 10129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
- Evans, David S & Leighton, Linda S, 1989. "Some Empirical Aspects of Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 519-535, June.
- Maloney, William F., 2004.
Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1159-1178, July.
- William Maloney & Jairo Mendez, 2004.
"Measuring the Impact of Minimum Wages. Evidence from Latin America,"
in: Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean, pages 109-130
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William F. Maloney & Jairo Nunez Mendez, 2003. "Measuring the Impact of Minimum Wages: Evidence from Latin America," NBER Working Papers 9800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maloney, William F. & Nunez, Jairo & Cunningham, Wendy & Fiess, Norbert & Montenegro, Claudio & Murrugarra, Edmundo & Santamaria,Mauricio & Sepulveda, Claudia, 2001. "Measuring the impact of minimum wages : evidence from Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2597, The World Bank.
- Maloney, William F., 1998. "The structure of labor markets in developing countries : time series evidence on competing views," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1940, The World Bank.
- Andalón, Mabel & Pagés, Carmen, 2008. "Minimum Wages in Kenya," IZA Discussion Papers 3390, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-827, August.
- Rauch, James E., 1991. "Modelling the informal sector formally," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 33-47, January.
- Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
- Mazumdar, Dipak, 1976. "The urban informal sector," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(8), pages 655-679, August.
- Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
- Pratap, Sangeeta & Quintin, Erwan, 2006. "Are labor markets segmented in developing countries? A semiparametric approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1817-1841, October.
- Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992.
"Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model,"
92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2006_17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jeanette Findlay)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.