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Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock-Watson : une application à l'économie belge

Author

Listed:
  • Bodart, Vincent

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

  • Candelon, Bertrand

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

Abstract

Au cours de différents travaux récents, Stock et Watson (1989, 1991, 1993) ont développé une méthodologie nouvelle de construction d'indicateurs de conjoncture. Bien que ces travaux constituent un apport considérable pour l'analyse des cycles économiques, ceux-ci ont curieusement fait l'objet de peu d'applications empiriques. Dans cet article, nous présentons une application de la méthodologie de Stock-Watson au cas belge. Nous montrons que l'indicateur synthétique de conjoncture que nous obtenons dispose de propriétés remarquables et offre une vision du cycle économique belge nettement différente de celle mise en évidence par des indicateurs de conjoncture plus traditionnels.

Suggested Citation

  • Bodart, Vincent & Candelon, Bertrand, 1999. "Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock-Watson : une application à l'économie belge," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1999018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:1999018
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    2. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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