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Business Cycle Correlation of the New Meber States with Eurozone - The Case of Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Dumitru, Ionut

    () (Academy of the Economic Studies of Bucharest; Raiffeisen Bank Romania)

  • Dumitru, Ionela

    () (Academy of the Economic Studies Bucharest)

Abstract

This paper assesses the degree of readiness of New Member States (NMS) of the EU, including Romania, to adopt euro, mainly based on an optimal currency area (OCA) criterium. Using three consensus measures of output gap based on revisions of the estimated output gaps computed by 5 filtering techniques and a benchmark method based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) we estimated the business cycle correlation between NMS and eurozone. Our findings suggest that the correlation of the business cycle in the case of Romania is one of the lowest among NMS, although it increased tremendously in the last years. The main conclusion of our paper is the fact that Romania, as well as some other NMS countries still need time to progress on the real convergence criteria in order to adopt euro without major costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2010. "Business Cycle Correlation of the New Meber States with Eurozone - The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 16-31, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:4:p:16-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    2. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Measurement of Business Cycles," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 966, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Vadas, 2005. "A New Method for Combining Detrending Techniques with Application to Business Cycle Synchronization of the New EU Members," Working Papers 0505, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    6. Iancu, Aurel, 2007. "Economic Convergence. Applications - Second Part -," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 24-48, December.
    7. Fleming, J Marcus, 1971. "On Exchange Rate Unification," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(323), pages 467-488, September.
    8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    9. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
    10. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2007. "Modelling The Romanian Economy: Some Data Problems," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(1), pages 7-25, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Iancu, Aurel, 2014. "Financial Instability, Cycles and the Role of Institutions," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 141007, National Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Sofia Gouveia, 2014. "Business cycle correlation between the Euro area and the Balkan countries," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 33-49, April.
    3. Savoiu, Gheorghe & Dinu, Vasile & Ciuca, Suzana, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment based on Country Risk and other Macroconomic Factors. Econometric Models for Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 39-61, March.
    4. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Stylized facts of business cycles in a transition economy in time and frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2163-2173.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    OCA; output gap; business cycle synchronization; euro adoption; convergence;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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