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Business cycle correlation between the Euro area and the Balkan countries

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  • Sofia Gouveia

    () (Centre for Transdisciplinary Development Studies, Department of Economics, Sociology and Management, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Complexo Pedagógico, Quinta de Prados, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal)

Abstract

This paper examines the degree of trade integration and business cycle synchronisation between eight Balkan countries and the Euro area over the period 2000:1-2011:4. The main findings are that Slovenia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia exhibit a high level of openness relative to Euro area and seem to have achieved a large degree of business cycle synchronisation with the aggregate Euro area cycle. The other Balkan countries are characterized by high trade integration with the EMU (except Greece and Turkey) and a rather modest degree of association with the Euro area cycle, although Turkey is nearest the average of the EMU countries. We further document that there is a tendency for an increase in the degree of synchronisation with EMU for all Balkan countries. We also note, however, that at the end of the period, the degree of synchronisation has become less pronounced.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofia Gouveia, 2014. "Business cycle correlation between the Euro area and the Balkan countries," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 33-49, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:7:y:2014:i:1:p:33-49
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Valerija Botriæ & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Bilateral Trade and SEE–Eurozone Countries Growth Rate Alignment," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(2 (Summer), pages 137-155.
    2. Ioanna Apostolidou & Achilleas Kontogeorgos & Anastasios Michailidis & Efstratios Loizou, 2014. "The Role of Agriculture in Economic Growth: A Comparison of Mediterranean and Northern Views in Europe," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 7(3), pages 81-102, December.
    3. Kovačić, Zlatko & Vilotić, Miloš, 2017. "Assessing European business cycles synchronization," MPRA Paper 79990, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Synchronization; Balkan countries; European integration; Euro area;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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