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Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area


  • Dinu. Marin

    () (Academy of Economic Studies (AES), Bucharest)

  • Marinas, Marius Corneliu

    () (Academy of Economic Studies (AES), Bucharest)

  • Socol Cristian

    () (Academy of Economic Studies (AES), Bucharest)

  • Socol, Aura Gabriela

    () (Academy of Economic Studies (AES), Bucharest)


The aim of this study is to estimate the degree of synchronization between the business cycles of the the most integrated seven CEE economies with the Euro Area, according to methods which are less used in the economic literature, some of them being proposed by Darvas and Szapáry (2004). In this study we have identified the main causes of the divergences between the business cycles in an enlarged Euro Area, using different methods such as cluster analysis, OLS regression, the 1st order autocorrelation coefficient, the SVAR decomposition and the standard deviation. Applying this analysis to all the seven CEE economies, it results in higher costs of the euro adoption in the case of Bulgaria and Romania and lower costs for Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2012:i:2:p:5-23

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    Cited by:

    1. Dorina Lazar & Anuta Buiga & Adela Deaconu, 2016. "Common Stochastic Trends in European Mortality Levels: Testing and Consequences for Modeling Longevity Risk in Insurance," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 152-168, June.

    More about this item


    business cycle synchronization; Euro Area; SVAR model; volatility; cluster analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles


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