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Second Order Dynamics Of Economic Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Purica, Ionut

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Caraiani, Petre

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The monthly data of the industrial production in Romania after the structural discontinuity occurring at the end of 1989 show an under-damped oscillatory behavior that suggests an evolution of second order systems excited by a step function. Since this behavior is well described in control systems we are doing what the literature usually calls a reversed engineering of the data in order to identify the specific parameters for the economic cycle of industrial production. The final goal is to determine the second order differential equation that may be associated to the economic process related to industrial production evolution. This paper is a first contribution that opens an alternative approach to describe the economic dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Purica, Ionut & Caraiani, Petre, 2009. "Second Order Dynamics Of Economic Cycles," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 36-47, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:1:p:36-47
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caraiani, Petre, 2007. "An Estimated New Keynesian Model for Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 114-123, December.
    2. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    3. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    4. Caraiani, Petre, 2007. "An Analysis of the Fluctuations in the Romanian Economy using the Real Business Cycles Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(2), pages 76-86, June.
    5. Caraiani, Petre, 2004. "Nominal And Real Stylized Facts Of The Business Cycles In Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(4), pages 121-132, December.
    6. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    7. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    8. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2001. "Evolution Of Inflation-Unemployment Relationship In The Perspective Of Romania’S Accession To Eu," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-23, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Is the Romanian Business Cycle Characterized by Chaos?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 142-151, September.
    2. Purica, Ionut, 2010. "Nonlinear Considerations on Economic Systems’ Behaviour," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 74-81.
    3. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Financial System Fragility Models," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 110211, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    4. Purica, Ionut, 2012. "Oscillatory Dynamics of Industrial Production," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 117-128, December.
    5. Cristi SPULBAR & Mihai NITOI & Cristian STANCIU, 2012. "Identifying The Industry Business Cycle Using The Markov Switching Approach In Central And Eastern Europe," Management and Marketing Journal, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 0(2), pages 293-300, November.
    6. Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.
    7. Caraiani, Petre, 2010. "Modeling Business Cycles In The Romanian Economy Using The Markov Switching Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 130-136, March.
    8. Andrei Silviu DOSPINESCU, 2012. "The Behavior Of Prices As A Response To Structural Changes - The Role Of The Economic Transmission Mechanisms In Explaining The Observed Behavior," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 35(2(44)), pages 201-217, December.
    9. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Models of Financial System Fragility," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 230-256, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; simulations; nonlinear methods; transition economies; mathematical methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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