IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v42y2015i2p237-256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatile earmarked revenues and state highway expenditures in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Phuong Nguyen-Hoang

Abstract

Heavy use of transportation-related revenues earmarked for highways is one of the distinguishing characteristics of state highway finance in the United States. This is the first study to examine the potentially differential effects of earmarked revenue volatility on state highway expenditures. Using panel data for over 30 years, I found in both OLS and 2SLS estimations that state highway expenditures did not respond to upward cyclical deviations in earmarked revenues. Also, a one-percentage-point downward deviation of earmarked revenues from trend was associated with a decline of between 0.24 and 0.32 % in state highway expenditures. This finding has potential policy implications for state budgets and efforts to maintain or expand transportation infrastructure and, by extension, efforts to spur economic growth. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Phuong Nguyen-Hoang, 2015. "Volatile earmarked revenues and state highway expenditures in the United States," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 237-256, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:42:y:2015:i:2:p:237-256
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-014-9534-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11116-014-9534-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-014-9534-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. Congleton, Roger D & Bennett, Randall W, 1995. "On the Political Economy of State Highway Expenditures: Some Evidence of the Relative Performance of Alternative Public Choice Models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 84(1-2), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Borcherding, Thomas E & Deacon, Robert T, 1972. "The Demand for the Services of Non-Federal Governments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 891-901, December.
    5. Marlow, Michael L & Orzechowski, William, 1996. "Public Sector Unions and Public Spending," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 89(1-2), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Sharon N. Kioko & Christine R. Martell, 2012. "Impact of State-Level Tax and Expenditure Limits (TELs) on Government Revenues and Aid to Local Governments," Public Finance Review, , vol. 40(6), pages 736-766, November.
    7. Helen F. Ladd & Edward B. Fiske, 2008. "Handbook of Research in Education Finance and Policy," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 149-150, January.
    8. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Kollias, Christos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Guns, highways and economic growth in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 449-455.
    10. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    11. L. R. Klein & R. F. Kosobud, 1961. "Some Econometrics of Growth: Great Ratios of Economics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(2), pages 173-198.
    12. Joseph Berechman & Dilruba Ozmen & Kaan Ozbay, 2006. "Empirical analysis of transportation investment and economic development at state, county and municipality levels," Transportation, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 537-551, November.
    13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    14. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    15. Pedersen, Torben Mark, 2001. "The Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Slutzky effect, and the distortionary effect of filters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1081-1101, August.
    16. R. K. Goel & M. A. Nelson, 2003. "Use or abuse of highway tax revenues? An economic analysis of highway spending," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(13), pages 813-819.
    17. James M. Buchanan, 1963. "The Economics of Earmarked Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 457-457.
    18. William N. Evans & Ping Zhang, 2007. "The Impact of Earmarked Lottery Revenue on K–12 Educational Expenditures," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 2(1), pages 40-73, January.
    19. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    20. Burton Abrams & William Dougan, 1986. "The effects of constitutional restraints on governmental spending," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 101-116, January.
    21. Rephann, Terance & Isserman, Andrew, 1994. "New highways as economic development tools: An evaluation using quasi-experimental matching methods," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 723-751, December.
    22. Simon van Norden, 2002. "Filtering for Current Analysis," Staff Working Papers 02-28, Bank of Canada.
    23. Benjamin Bridgman, 2013. "International Supply Chains And The Volatility Of Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 2110-2124, October.
    24. Pollock, D. S. G., 2000. "Trend estimation and de-trending via rational square-wave filters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 317-334, December.
    25. Shama Gamkhar, 2000. "Is the Response of State and Local Highway Spending Symmetric to Increases and Decreases in Federal Highway Grants?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(1), pages 3-25, January.
    26. Robert Hannay & Martin Wachs, 2007. "Factors influencing support for local transportation sales tax measures," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 17-35, January.
    27. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    28. repec:rre:publsh:v:37:y:2007:i:2:p:169-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Berechman, Joseph, 1994. "Urban and regional economic impacts of transportation investment: A critical assessment and proposed methodology," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 351-362, July.
    30. Goldman, Todd & Wachs, Martin, 2003. "A Quiet Revolution in Transportation Finance: The Rise of Local Option Transportation Taxes," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2gp4m4xq, University of California Transportation Center.
    31. Michael P. Murray, 2006. "Avoiding Invalid Instruments and Coping with Weak Instruments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 111-132, Fall.
    32. Brian Knight, 2002. "Endogenous Federal Grants and Crowd-out of State Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the Federal Highway Aid Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 71-92, March.
    33. Pollock, D. S. G., 2001. "Methodology for trend estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 75-96, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda & Renneboog, Luc & Verga-Matos, Pedro, 2017. "Measuring highway efficiency : A DEA approach and the Malquist index," Other publications TiSEM 23264815-321e-45a3-83ee-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. William B. Hankins & Frank Goetzke & Gary Hoover, 2019. "Partisan Determinants of Federal Highway Grants," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 389-406.
    3. Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2018. "The price of project finance loans for highways," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 161-172.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    2. Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Michael Funke & Harm Bandholz, 2003. "In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 277-297.
    4. Carnazza, Giovanni & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The cyclically-adjusted primary balance: A novel approach for the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1123-1145.
    5. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    6. Vadim Kufenko, 2020. "Hide-and-Seek with time-series filters: a model-based Monte Carlo study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2335-2361, November.
    7. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    8. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2012. "Money, Output, And Inflation In The Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 773-787, July.
    9. Sunder, Marco & Woitek, Ulrich, 2005. "Boom, bust, and the human body: Further evidence on the relationship between height and business cycles," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 450-466, December.
    10. Robert J. Hodrick, 2020. "An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data," NBER Working Papers 26750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    12. João Valle e Azevedo, 2007. "Interpretation of the Effects of Filtering Integrated Time Series," Working Papers w200712, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Van Norden, Simon, 2004. "Filtres pour l’analyse courante," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(2), pages 523-546, Juin-Sept.
    14. Simon van Norden, 2002. "Filtering for Current Analysis," Staff Working Papers 02-28, Bank of Canada.
    15. Fukuda, Kosei, 2012. "Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1045-1052.
    16. Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.
    17. Tawadros, George B., 2011. "The stylised facts of Australia's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 549-556.
    18. Cohen, Gail & Jalles, Joao Tovar & Loungani, Prakash & Marto, Ricardo & Wang, Gewei, 2019. "Decoupling of emissions and GDP: Evidence from aggregate and provincial Chinese data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 105-118.
    19. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    20. Woitek, Ulrich, 2003. "Height cycles in the 18th and 19th centuries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 243-257, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:42:y:2015:i:2:p:237-256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.