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Is the Romanian Business Cycle Characterized by Chaos?

Author

Listed:
  • Caraiani, Petre

    () (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

I compare the two alternative paradigms of business cycles for the case of the Romanian economy, namely the mainstream view that business cycles are driven by stochastic shocks and the nonlinear view, known as the endogenous business cycles theory, which states that business cycles are driven by deterministic processes. The comparison is based on the run of several tests for nonlinearity and chaos, such as the BDS test or the maximum Lyapunov exponent.

Suggested Citation

  • Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Is the Romanian Business Cycle Characterized by Chaos?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 142-151, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2012:i:3:p:142-151
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barnett, William A. & Ronald Gallant, A. & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1995. "Robustness of nonlinearity and chaos tests to measurement error, inference method, and sample size," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 301-320, July.
    2. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    4. Purica, Ionut & Caraiani, Petre, 2009. "Second Order Dynamics Of Economic Cycles," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 36-47, March.
    5. Brock, W.A., 1988. "Nonlinearity And Complex Dynamics In Economics And Finance," Working papers 360, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    6. Scheinkman, Jose A, 1990. "Nonlinearities in Economic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 33-48, Supplemen.
    7. Takala, Kari & Viren, Matti, 1996. "Chaos and nonlinear dynamics in financial and nonfinancial time series: Evidence from Finland," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 155-172, August.
    8. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2001. "Evolution Of Inflation-Unemployment Relationship In The Perspective Of Romania’S Accession To Eu," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-23, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; nonlinear analysis; chaos; endogenous business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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