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Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU

Author

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  • Albu, Lucian Liviu

    () (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

Despite the multitude of models created, their predictions are often contradicted by the empirical data, so that investigating macroeconomic structural changes continues to be a challenge to economists. Based on empirical data from countries around the world, our study tries to estimate a generic long-run model for analysing structural changes along with the general process of economic development. Moreover, from such a methodology a specific “EU model” was derived. Among the results, the long-run dynamics of structural changes seems to converge within the EU-27; the remaining problem being how long the convergence period is. This study shows how some more detailed interpretations could be extracted from the simulation of the model by using 3D maps or contour plot in the case of the EU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:91-101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    2. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-380, December.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    4. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    5. Erik Canton & Bert Minne & Ate Nieuwenhuis & Bert Smid & Marc van der Steeg, 2005. "Human capital, R&D, and competition in macroeconomic analysis," CPB Document 91, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Monica Adriana TEGLEDI, 2012. "Territorial support of macroeconomic processes and national priorities," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 463-469, May.
    2. Lucian-Liviu ALBU, 2011. "Structural Changes and Convergence in EU and in Adriatic-Balkans Region," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 32(1(41)), pages 78-96, June.
    3. Lucian-Liviu Albu, 2012. "A Model To Estimate The Effect Of Global Crisis On The Convergence Process In Eu," New Trends in Modelling and Economic Forecast (MEF 2011), ROMANIAN ACADEMY – INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC FORECASTING;"Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, January.
    4. Albu, Lucian Liviu & Gorun, Adrian, 2010. "Examples of New Macroeconomic Modelling and Simulation Techniques: How They Could Improve Decisions and Public Perception," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 7-16.
    5. Dumitru Miron & Alina Mihaela Dima & Simona Vasilache, 2010. "Models Of The Intra-Regional Trade Influence On Economic Sustainable Development In Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 27-35, February.
    6. Dinu, Marin & Marinas, Marius-Corneliu & Socol, Cristian & Socol, Aura-Gabriela, 2014. "Testing the Endogeneity of Trade and Financial Integration and Sectoral Specialization in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 86-104, March.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "Trade Specialisation and Economic Convergence: Evidence from Two Eastern European Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 875, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. ALBU Lucian-Liviu, 2011. "Changes In Economy Or Changes In Economics?," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 55(2), pages 28-31.
    9. Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2013. "Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Regional EmploymenT," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 52-69, June.
    10. Sova, Robert & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Stanciu, Ion & Sova, Anamaria, 2009. "Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment in the New EU Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 42-51, June.
    11. repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:2:p:29-44 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural changes; non-linear model; asymptotical trajectory; stages of economic development.;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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