A Model To Estimate The Effect Of Global Crisis On The Convergence Process In Eu
There are evidences that the actual global crisis affected the convergence process in EU. Generally, just new adhered countries were more affected by the actual crisis. Today all forecasts are suffering by uncertainty. There are different opinions regarding how deep and how long the convergence process will be affected. Synthetically, the pessimistic authors are viewing the future economic dynamics as one of so-called L type or U type or W type. Coming from lessons done by standard economic growth theories (Ramsey model, Solow-Swan model, Mankiw, Romer, and Weil model, etc.) and empirical evidences, we are considering the convergence in the level of income per capita as a result of structural changes in economy. In a first part of the study we investigate the differences among countries in EU in terms of the share in total economy of main sectors. Then, based on the spatial (empirical) distribution of such shares in EU we are proposing a model to estimate a typology of the convergence process in the European area. Taking into account the existing differences among sectors in matter of productivity, there are two versions of the model: one considering the share of sectors in total employment and the other one in GDP. Finally, we are using the model to evaluate the negative impact of actual crisis on the convergence process, how deep and how long it will be prolonged, how investment and consumption are affected.
Volume (Year): 1 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro, 2013.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
Annals of Economics and Finance,
Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
- Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
- Lucian Liviu Albu & Ion Ghizdeanu & Cristian Stanica, 2011. "Spatial Distribution of the Informal Economy. A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2011(1), pages 63-80.
- Erik Canton & Bert Minne & Ate Nieuwenhuis & Bert Smid & Marc van der Steeg, 2005. "Human capital, R&D, and competition in macroeconomic analysis," CPB Document 91, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ntu:ntumef:vol1-iss1-12-011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lucian Liviu ALBU)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.