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Structural Changes and Convergence in EU and in Adriatic-Balkans Region

  • Lucian-Liviu ALBU

    ()

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Coming from standard economic growth theory and empirical evidences, we concentrated on the convergence process as a result of structural changes in economy. We investigate the differences among countries in EU in terms of the share in total economy of main sectors. Then, based on the spatial (empirical) distribution of such shares in EU we are proposing a model to estimate a typology of the convergence process in the European area. Taking into account the existing differences among sectors in matter of productivity, there are two versions of the model: considering the share of sectors in total employment and the share of sectors in GDP, respectively. Moreover, we developed several modelling schemes that could be useful to improve the strategies oriented to achieve a real convergence in EU and further in the Adriatic-Balkans Region. In this way, we can obtain simulations from a country or group of countries (European Union, for example) on long term and quantifying the impact of structural changes on the convergence process. Indeed, the actual global crisis seems to influence negatively the convergence process in the EU. As a rule, just newly adhered countries have been more affected by the actual crisis. Today all forecasts are suffering from uncertainty. Thus, further efforts must be allocated to evaluate the negative impact of actual crisis on the convergence process.

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Article provided by Institute of National Economy in its journal Romanian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2011(XXI))
Issue (Month): 1(41) (June)
Pages: 78-96

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Handle: RePEc:ine:journl:v:1:y:2011:i:41:p:78-96
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  1. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
  2. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
  3. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-80, December.
  4. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  5. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
  6. Lucian Liviu Albu & Ion Ghizdeanu & Cristian Stanica, 2011. "Spatial Distribution of the Informal Economy. A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2011(1), pages 63-80.
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