A Matter of Time: Revisiting Growth Convergence in China
China’s unbalanced growth strategy has seemingly fostered growing inter-regional growth disparities and there is little evidence of wealth trickling down from richer provinces to poorer provinces. Standard convergence tests, however, may be ill specified to detect underlying long-term growth trends in small samples due to the pronounced and frequent inter-regional short-term fluctuations. Our paper suggests a novel approach to distinguish between these long-term growth trends and short-term fluctuations. Based on provincial data from 1978 to 2009, our results indicate that China’s provinces only diverge over the short-term. Over the long term, provinces cluster into two converging growth clubs.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Corbae, D. & Ouliaris, S. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1997.
"Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data,"
97-09, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Fleisher, Belton M. & Chen, Jian, 1997. "The Coast-Noncoast Income Gap, Productivity, and Regional Economic Policy in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 220-236, October.
- Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1990.
"Trade, Knowledge Spillovers, and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valentina Meliciani & Franco Peracchi, 2004.
"Convergence in Per-capita GDP Across European Regions: A Reappraisal,"
CEIS Research Paper
58, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Valentina Meliciani & Franco Peracchi, 2006. "Convergence in per-capita GDP across European regions: a reappraisal," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 549-568, September.
- Robert J. Barro, 1989.
"Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 2013.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
Annals of Economics and Finance,
Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
- Francisco Goerlich & Matilde Mas, 2002. "Intertemporal and interprovincial variations in income inequality: Spain, 1973-1991," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 1005-1015.
- Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David & Opper, Sonja, 2008. "Why is Chinese Regional Output Diverging?," Working Papers 2008:15, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 03 Dec 2008.
- Galor, Oded, 1996.
"Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-69, July.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti & Zheng Song, 2009.
"Growing like China,"
2009 Meeting Papers
912, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," NBER Working Papers 7828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yan, Isabel K. & Chan, Kenneth S. & Dang, Vinh Q.T. & Lai, Jennifer T., 2011.
"Regional Capital Mobility in China: 1978-2006,"
35217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary H. Jefferson & Albert G. Z. Hu & Jian Su, 2006. "The Sources and Sustainability of China's Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 1-60.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2011. "Band Spectrum Regressions using Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2011:22, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1994.
"Regional Cohesion: Evidence and Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1994. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," Economics Working Papers 104, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Chiquiar, Daniel, 2005. "Why Mexico's regional income convergence broke down," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 257-275, June.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian & Marc Nerlove, 2006.
"Time Series Analysis,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
06-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Ernesto Aguayo-Tellez, 2006. "Income Divergence between Mexican States in the 1990s: The Role of Skill Premium," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 255-277.
- Zhang, Xiaobo & Yang, Jin & Wang, Shenglin, 2011.
"China has reached the Lewis turning point,"
China Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 542-554.
- Yanrui Wu, 2009. "China's Capital Stock Seris By Region and Sector," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 09-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Romer, Paul M, 1986.
"Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2007.
"Are any Growth Theories Robust?,"
University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics
2-2007, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Andros KOURTELLOS & Chih Ming Tan, 2007. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0703, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Shahid Yusuf & Kaoru Nabeshima & Dwight H. Perkins, 2005. "Under New Ownership : Privatizing China's State-Owned Enterprises," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7399.
- Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
- John Knight & Deng Quheng and Li Shi, 2010.
"The Puzzle of Migrant Labour Shortage and Rural Labour Surplus in China,"
Economics Series Working Papers
494, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Knight, John & Deng, Quheng & Li, Shi, 2011. "The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 585-600.
- Dennis Tao Yang, 1999. "Urban-Biased Policies and Rising Income Inequality in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 306-310, May.
- Paul Romer, 1989.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
NBER Working Papers
3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zind, Richard G., 1991. "Income convergence and divergence within and between LDC groups," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 719-727, June.
- Engle, Robert F, 1974.
"Band Spectrum Regression,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
- Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor'S Edge: Distortions And Incremental Reform In The People'S Republic Of China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1091-1135, November.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1993.
"Making a Miracle,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 251-72, March.
- Lant Pritchett, 1997.
"Divergence, Big Time,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer.
- C. Cindy Fan, 1997. "Uneven development and beyond: regional development theory in post-Mao China," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 620-639, December.
- Sylvie Demurger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Shuming Bao, Gene Chang & Andrew Mellinger, 2002.
"Geography, Economic Policy, and Regional Development in China,"
NBER Working Papers
8897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sylvie Démurger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Shuming Bao & Gene Chang & Andrew Mellinger, 2002. "Geography, Economic Policy, and Regional Development in China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 146-197.
- Sylvie DEMURGER & SACHS & Wing Thye WOO & BAO & CHANG & MELLINGER, 2001. "Geography, Economic Policy and Regional Development in China," Working Papers 200109, CERDI.
- Sylvie Demurger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Shuming Bao & Gene Chang & Andrew Mellinger, 2002. "Geography, Economic Policy and Regional Development in China," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1950, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, 07.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999.
"Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?,"
NBER Working Papers
6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
- Phillips, P C B, 1991.
"Error Correction and Long-Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 967-80, July.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Error Correction and Long Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 882R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Tom Doan, . "PHILLIPSHANNAN: RATS procedure to compute Phillips-Hannan Efficient estimator for multivariate regressions," Statistical Software Components RTS00158, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pratap S. Birthal & Harvinder Singh & Shiv Kumar, 2011. "Agriculture, economic growth and regional disparities in India," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 119-131, January.
- Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
- Nee, Victor & Opper, Sonja, 2012. "Capitalism from Below: Markets and Institutional Change in China," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674050204.
- Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "China is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4621, The World Bank.
- Jian, T & Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995.
"Trends in Regional Inequality in China,"
518, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
- Fleisher, Belton M. & Hu, Yifan & Li, Haizheng & Kim, Seonghoon, 2011. "Economic transition, higher education and worker productivity in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 86-94, January.
- Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, 04.
- Fung Kwan, 2009. "Agricultural labour and the incidence of surplus labour: experience from China during reform," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 341-361.
- Gary Jefferson & Thomas Rawski & Yifan Zhang, 2008. "Productivity growth and convergence across China's industrial economy," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 121-140.
- Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 385-406, June.
- Dowrick, Steve & Nguyen, Duc-Tho, 1989. "OECD Comparative Economic Growth 1950-85: Catch-Up and Convergence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1010-30, December.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bolton, Patrick, 1997. "A Theory of Trickle-Down Growth and Development," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 151-72, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:45:y:2013:i:c:p:239-251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.