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Models Of The Intra-Regional Trade Influence On Economic Sustainable Development In Romania


  • Dumitru Miron

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Alina Mihaela Dima

    () (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Simona Vasilache

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)


This paper estimates the impact of trade between Romania and EU (export and imports) on sustainable development (defined through the following ratios: GDP growth and employment level) using dynamic forecasting and vector auto-regression (VAR) methods. Logistic regression forecasts the evolution of the GDP based on the evolution of exports and imports in the light of the Lisbon agenda, and the time horizon of 2010. Using data regarding intra-regional trade, the model may predict the GDP evolution, and, consequently, the economic sustainable development in Romania, as a new member of European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumitru Miron & Alina Mihaela Dima & Simona Vasilache, 2010. "Models Of The Intra-Regional Trade Influence On Economic Sustainable Development In Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 27-35, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:12:y:2010:i:27:p:27-35

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "Trade Specialisation and Economic Convergence: Evidence from Two Eastern European Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 875, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, March.
    3. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
    4. B. Wooster, Rossitza & Dube, Smile, 2008. "The Contribution of Intra-Regional and Extra-Regional Trade to Growth: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 161-182.
    5. Peter Egger, 2006. "Intermediate goods trade and international wage convergence in Central Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 181-192, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Armenia Androniceanu & Irina-Virginia Drăgulănescu, 2012. "Sustainability of the Organizational Changes in the Context of Global Economic Crisis," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(32), pages 365-379, June.

    More about this item


    sustainable development intra-regional trade; economic integration; regression; model;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth


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