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Models Of The Intra-Regional Trade Influence On Economic Sustainable Development In Romania

  • Dumitru Miron

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Alina Mihaela Dima

    ()

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Simona Vasilache

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

This paper estimates the impact of trade between Romania and EU (export and imports) on sustainable development (defined through the following ratios: GDP growth and employment level) using dynamic forecasting and vector auto-regression (VAR) methods. Logistic regression forecasts the evolution of the GDP based on the evolution of exports and imports in the light of the Lisbon agenda, and the time horizon of 2010. Using data regarding intra-regional trade, the model may predict the GDP evolution, and, consequently, the economic sustainable development in Romania, as a new member of European Union.

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Article provided by Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania in its journal The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal.

Volume (Year): 12 (2010)
Issue (Month): 27 (February)
Pages: 27-35

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Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:12:y:2010:i:27:p:27-35
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  1. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "Technological diffusion, convergence and growth," Economics Working Papers 116, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2011. "Trade Specialisation and Economic Convergence: Evidence from two Eastern European Countries," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_071, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  3. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
  4. Peter Egger, 2006. "Intermediate goods trade and international wage convergence in Central Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 181-192, September.
  5. B. Wooster, Rossitza & Dube, Smile, 2008. "The Contribution of Intra-Regional and Extra-Regional Trade to Growth: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 161-182.
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