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Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Regional EmploymenT

Author

Listed:
  • Jula, Dorin

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy and Ecological University of Bucharest)

  • Jula, Nicolae Marius

    (University Nicolae Titulescu of Bucharest)

Abstract

In a recent paper, Professor Dobrescu (2011) analyses the relationship between sectoral structure and economic growth, using data on the world economy for the period 1970-2008. In this paper, we try to extend this relationship at regional level. Concretely, using the Toda-Yamamoto version of the Granger causality test, we analyse the factors underlying the process of deep structural change in regional employment in Romania. The hypotheses tested regarding the causality process are the following: at regional level, economic growth causes structural changes in employment; structural changes in employment boost the economic growth or there is a mutual conditioning (a feedback relation). We tested the robustness of these hypotheses by using the panel data analysis and we found that growth causes structural changes in total regional employment and for regional activities in manufacturing, real estate activities, wholesale and retail, education, mining and quarrying, financial intermediation and insurance, health and social assistance, administrative services, construction. Further, we reject the hypothesis that structural changes in regional employment cause regional GDP to grow. We also found that there may be an asymmetry between the effect induced by economic growth and recession-induced effect on the intensity of structural changes in regional employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2013. "Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Regional EmploymenT," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 52-69, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:2:p:52-69
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2011. "Sectoral Structure and Economic Growth," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-36, September.
    2. International Labour Office., 2013. "Global employment trends 2013 : recovering from a second jobs dip [Chinese version]," Global Employment Trends Reports 994853703402676, International Labour Office, Economic and Labour Market Analysis Department.
    3. Jula, Dorin, 2008. "Economic Impact of Political Cycles – The Relevance of European experinces for Romania," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081101, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    4. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
    5. Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2009. "Regional Economic Voting In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 5-15, March.
    6. International Labour Office., 2013. "Global employment trends 2013 : recovering from a second jobs dip," Global Employment Trends Reports 994792413402676, International Labour Office, Economic and Labour Market Analysis Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gogâltan Nicoleta Maria, 2014. "Analysis Of The Employment Growth At Regional Level Using Eviews Software," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 8(2), pages 509-518, December.
    2. Cristina LINCARU & Speranţa PÎRCIOG, 2017. "Decomposing Productivity Changes – Romania’s Counties Case," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 166-184, September.
    3. Dorin JULA & Nicoleta JULA, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Potential GDP for Romanian Economy," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 23-41, June.
    4. Nicolae-Marius Jula & Diana-Mihaela Jula & Bogdan Oancea & Răzvan-Mihail Papuc & Dorin Jula, 2023. "Changes in the Pattern of Weekdays Electricity Real Consumption during the COVID-19 Crisis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Dorin JULA & Nicoleta JULA, 2016. "Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions. A Kaya-type Dynamic Panel," Working papers 01, Ecological University of Bucharest, Department of Economics.
    6. Dorin JULA & Nicolae-Marius JULA, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investments and Employment. Structural Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 29-44, June.
    7. Raileanu Szeles, Monica, 2014. "A Multidimensional Approach to the Inclusiveness of economic Growth in the New Member States," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-24, June.
    8. Andreica, Madalina Ecaterina & Andreica, Marin, 2014. "Forecast of Romanian Industry Employment using Simulation and Panel Data Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 130-140, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional employment; structural changes; regional growth; Toda-Yamamoto causality test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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