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Structural Transformation and the Oil Price

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  • Radoslaw Stefanski

    (University Laval)

Abstract

What part of the high oil price can be explained by structural transformation in the developing world? Will continued structural transformation in these countries result in a permanently higher oil price? To address these issues I identify an inverted-U shaped relationship in the data between aggregate oil intensity and the extent of structural transformation: countries in the middle stages of transition spend the highest fraction of their income on oil. I construct and calibrate a multi-sector, multi-country, general equilibrium growth model that accounts for this fact by generating an endogenously falling aggregate elasticity of substitution between oil and non-oil inputs. The model is used to measure and isolate the impact of changing sectoral composition in the developing world on global oil demand and the oil price in the OECD. I find that structural transformation in non-OECD countries accounts for up to 53% of the oil price increase in the OECD between 1970 and 2010. However, the impact of structural transformation is temporary. Continued structural transformation induces falling oil intensity and an easing of the upward pressure on the oil price. Since a standard one-sector growth model misses this non-linearity, to understand the impact of growth on the oil price, it is necessary to take a more disaggregated view than is standard in macroeconomics (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Radoslaw Stefanski, 2014. "Structural Transformation and the Oil Price," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 484-504, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:12-45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2013.09.006
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    2. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Joëts, Marc & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 63-78.
    3. Ercio Muñoz & Miguel Ricaurte & Mariel Siravegna, 2012. "Combinación de Proyecciones para el Precio del Petróleo: Aplicación y Evaluación de Metodologías," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 660, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Guilló, Maria Dolores & Perez-Sebastian, Fidel, 2015. "Neoclassical growth and the natural resource curse puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 423-435.
    5. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    6. Robert Dekle & Murat Ungor, 2013. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Structural Transformation(s) of China and the U.S," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 303-319, June.
    7. Antonio Mele & Radoslaw Stefanski, 2019. "Velocity in the Long Run: Money and Structural Transformation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 393-410, January.
    8. Stuermer, Martin, 2017. "Industrialization and the demand for mineral commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 16-27.
    9. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri, 2011. "Oil efficiency, demand, and prices: a tale of ups and downs," International Finance Discussion Papers 1031, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Mata & Frederik Toscani, 2019. "Winning the oil lottery: the impact of natural resource extraction on growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-115, March.
    11. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.
    12. Cynthia Armas & Fernando Sánchez-Losada, 2021. "Structural change and the income of nations," UB Economics Working Papers 2021/412, Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, UB School of Economics.
    13. Baran Doda, 2012. "Evidence on CO2 emissions and business cycles," GRI Working Papers 78, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    14. Murat Üngör, 2009. "De-industrialization of the Riches and the Rise of China," DEGIT Conference Papers c014_040, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Omoju, Oluwasola E. & Okonkwo, Jennifer U., 2015. "Impact of industrialisation on CO2 emissions in Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1228-1239.
    16. Teignier, Marc, 2018. "The role of trade in structural transformation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 45-65.
    17. Zhou, Xiaoyan & Zhang, Jie & Li, Junpeng, 2013. "Industrial structural transformation and carbon dioxide emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 43-51.
    18. Robert Dekle, 2013. "Real Exchange Rates in a Model of Structural Change: Applications to the Real Yen-Dollar and Chinese RMB-Dollar Exchange Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    19. Tomasz Swiecki, 2017. "Determinants of Structural Change," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 95-131, March.
    20. Albert Jan Hummel & Vinzenz Ziesemer, 2021. "Food Subsidies in General Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 9201, CESifo.
    21. Michael Sposi, 2015. "Navigating the Structure of the Global Economy," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 10-17.
    22. Jacek Rothert & Jacob M. Short, 2021. "Non-traded goods, factor markets frictions, and international capital flows," GRAPE Working Papers 59, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    23. David M. Arseneau, 2011. "Explaining the energy consumption portfolio in a cross-section of countries: are the BRICs different?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1015, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural transformation; Industrialization; International trade; Multi-sector models; Commodity prices; Oil price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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