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Structural Transformation and the Oil Price

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  • Radoslaw Stefanski

Abstract

What part of the rising trend in the oil price is driven by structural transformation in China and India? Will continued structural transformation in these countries result in a permanently higher oil price? I identify an inverted-U shaped relationship in the data between aggregate oil intensity and the extent of structural transformation - countries in the middle stages of transition spend the highest fraction of their income on oil. A decomposition of aggregate oil intensity shows that only in the middle stages of transition are an economy's largest sectors also its most oil intensive ones. I construct a multi-sector, multi-country, general equilibrium growth model that accounts for these facts by generating endogenously falling aggregate elasticities of substitution between oil and non-oil inputs. The model is used to measure the impact of changing sectoral composition in China and India on world oil demand and the oil price in the OECD. Structural transformation in China and India accounts for up to a quarter of the oil price increase in the OECD between 1970 and 2007. However, continued structural transformation in China and India results in falling oil intensity and a drop in the oil price. Using a standard growth model misses this non-linearity and can give misleading implications about the long-term oil price. To understand the impact of growth on the oil price, it is necessary to take a more disaggregated view than is standard in macroeconomics.

Suggested Citation

  • Radoslaw Stefanski, 2010. "Structural Transformation and the Oil Price," OxCarre Working Papers 048, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:048
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    Cited by:

    1. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joets & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuation in diversified economies: The case of Canada," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    2. Ercio Muñoz & Miguel Ricaurte & Mariel Siravegna, 2012. "Combinación de Proyecciones para el Precio del Petróleo: Aplicación y Evaluación de Metodologías," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 660, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Guilló, Maria Dolores & Perez-Sebastian, Fidel, 2015. "Neoclassical growth and the natural resource curse puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 423-435.
    4. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    5. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 667-682.
    6. Bah, El-hadj M., 2007. "A Three-Sector Model of Structural Transformation and Economic Development," MPRA Paper 10654, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Sep 2008.
    7. Robert Dekle, 2013. "Real Exchange Rates in a Model of Structural Change: Applications to the Real Yen-Dollar and Chinese RMB-Dollar Exchange Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Tomasz Swiecki, 2017. "Determinants of Structural Change," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 95-131, March.
    9. Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Da Mata & Frederik Toscani, 2014. "Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth," ERSA conference papers ersa14p109, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 667-682.
    11. David M. Arseneau, 2011. "Explaining the energy consumption portfolio in a cross-section of countries: are the BRICs different?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1015, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri, 2011. "Oil efficiency, demand, and prices: a tale of ups and downs," International Finance Discussion Papers 1031, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Martin Stuermer, 2013. "Industrialization and the demand for mineral commodities," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse13_2013, University of Bonn, Germany.
    14. Robin Burgess & Matthew Hansen & Benjamin A. Olken & Peter Potapov & Stefanie Sieber, 2012. "The Political Economy of Deforestation in the Tropics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, pages 1707-1754.
    15. Murat Ungor, 2011. "De-industrialization of the Riches and the Rise of China," 2011 Meeting Papers 740, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. repec:eee:deveco:v:130:y:2018:i:c:p:45-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Da Mata & Frederik Toscani, 2014. "Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth," ERSA conference papers ersa14p109, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Zvi Eckstein & Osnat Lifshitz, 2015. "Household Interaction And The Labor Supply Of Married Women," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 427-455, May.
    19. repec:fip:feddgm:00030 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Guilló, María Dolores & Pérez-Sebastián, Fidel, 2012. "Neoclassical Growth and the Natural Resource Curse Puzzle," QM&ET Working Papers 12-14, University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural transformation; China; India; oil price.;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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