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Fiscal Policy in an Emerging Market Business Cycle Model

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  • Ghate, Chetan
  • Gopalakrishnan, Pawan
  • Tarafdar, Suchismita

Abstract

Emerging market economy business cycles are typically characterized by high consumption and output volatility, strongly counter-cyclical current accounts, and counter-cyclical real interest rates. Evidence from the wider EME and less developed economy business cycle experience suggests however that real interest rates can also be pro-cyclical. We reconcile the pro-cyclicality of real interest rates with the above facts by embedding fiscal policy into a standard emerging market business cycle model. We show that fiscal policy makes real interest rates a-cyclical or pro-cyclical. We use the model to replicate qualitatively some of the key features of the Indian business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Tarafdar, Suchismita, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Emerging Market Business Cycle Model," MPRA Paper 60449, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60449
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    Cited by:

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    2. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2021. "How quantitatively important is public investment for both business cycle fluctuations and output growth in Bulgaria (1999–2018)?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 126-141, May.
    3. Kumar, Alok, 2023. "Financial market imperfections, informality and government spending multipliers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2021. "Cyclical drivers of fiscal policy in sub-Saharan Africa: New insights from the time-varying heterogeneity approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-67.
    5. Bhattarai, Keshab & Benjasak, Chonlakan, 2021. "Growth and redistribution impacts of income taxes in the Thai Economy: A dynamic CGE analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    6. Ghosh, Saurabh & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Ranjan, Abhishek, 2022. "Technology shocks, banking sector policy, and the trade-off between firms and households," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 664-688.
    7. Ghosh, Saurabh & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Satija, Sakshi, 2019. "Recapitalization in an Economy with State-Owned Banks - A DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 96981, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging Market Business Cycles; Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy; Indian Business Cycle; Interest Rate Shocks; Macroeconomic Stabilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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