IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/60449.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy in an Emerging Market Business Cycle Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ghate, Chetan
  • Gopalakrishnan, Pawan
  • Tarafdar, Suchismita

Abstract

Emerging market economy business cycles are typically characterized by high consumption and output volatility, strongly counter-cyclical current accounts, and counter-cyclical real interest rates. Evidence from the wider EME and less developed economy business cycle experience suggests however that real interest rates can also be pro-cyclical. We reconcile the pro-cyclicality of real interest rates with the above facts by embedding fiscal policy into a standard emerging market business cycle model. We show that fiscal policy makes real interest rates a-cyclical or pro-cyclical. We use the model to replicate qualitatively some of the key features of the Indian business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Tarafdar, Suchismita, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Emerging Market Business Cycle Model," MPRA Paper 60449, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60449
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60449/1/MPRA_paper_60449.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    4. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 664, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Rachel Male, 2011. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 20-39, May.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    7. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    8. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    9. Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Prosperity and Depression: 2002 Richard T. Ely Lecture," Working Papers 618, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
    11. Ambler, Steve & Paquet, Alain, 1996. "Fiscal spending shocks, endogenous government spending, and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 237-256.
    12. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    13. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    14. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-450, June.
    15. Nan Li, 2011. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 686-704, October.
    16. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 343-357, October.
    17. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
    18. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    19. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    20. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, March.
    21. Kuehlwein, Michael, 1998. "Evidence on the substitutability between government purchases and consumer spending within specific spending categories," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 325-329, March.
    22. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    23. Ms. Hélène Poirson, 2006. "The Tax System in India: Could Reform Spur Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2006/093, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    25. Harald Uhlig & Lars Ljungqvist, 2000. "Tax Policy and Aggregate Demand Management under Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 356-366, June.
    26. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    27. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Ila Patnaik & Madhavi Pundit, 2013. "Emerging Economy Business Cycles: Financial Integration and Terms of Trade Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2013/119, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    29. Maurice J. Roche, 1996. "Government Spending and the International Business Cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 865-884, November.
    30. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    31. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    32. Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Prosperity and Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 1-15, May.
    33. Ni, Shawn, 1995. "An empirical analysis on the substitutability between private consumption and government purchases," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 593-605, December.
    34. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    35. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 664, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    36. Tiryaki S. Tolga, 2012. "Interest Rates and Real Business Cycles in Emerging Markets," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-30, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dave Chetan & Ghate Chetan & Gopalakrishnan Pawan & Tarafdar Suchismita, 2021. "Fiscal austerity in emerging market economies," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(5), pages 365-391, December.
    2. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2021. "How quantitatively important is public investment for both business cycle fluctuations and output growth in Bulgaria (1999–2018)?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 126-141, May.
    3. Kumar, Alok, 2023. "Financial market imperfections, informality and government spending multipliers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2021. "Cyclical drivers of fiscal policy in sub-Saharan Africa: New insights from the time-varying heterogeneity approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-67.
    5. Ghosh, Saurabh & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Ranjan, Abhishek, 2022. "Technology shocks, banking sector policy, and the trade-off between firms and households," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 664-688.
    6. Bhattarai, Keshab & Benjasak, Chonlakan, 2021. "Growth and redistribution impacts of income taxes in the Thai Economy: A dynamic CGE analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. Ghosh, Saurabh & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Satija, Sakshi, 2019. "Recapitalization in an Economy with State-Owned Banks - A DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 96981, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    2. Taheri, Abouzar & Nessabian, Shahriyar & Moghaddasi, Reza & Arbabi, Farzin & Damankeshideh, Marjan, 2020. "Business Cycles in Some Selected Oil Producing Countries: Iran versus Three OECD Members," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 27(1).
    3. Carneiro,Francisco Galrao & Hnatkovska,Viktoria, 2016. "Business cycles in the eastern Caribbean economies: the role of fiscal policy and interest rates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7545, The World Bank.
    4. Sumru Altug & Serdar Kabaca & Meltem Poyraz, 2011. "Search Frictions, Financial Frictions and Labor Market Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1136, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Serdar Kabaca, 2011. "Labor Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1122, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    6. Lathaporn Ratanavararak, 2018. "The Impact of Imperfect Financial Integration and Trade on Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 79, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Jacek Rothert, 2020. "International Business Cycles In Emerging Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 753-781, May.
    8. Michaud, Amanda & Rothert, Jacek, 2018. "Redistributive fiscal policies and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 123-133.
    9. Andrés Fernández, 2010. "“Tropical” Real Business Cycles? A Bayesian Exploration," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 28(61), pages 60-105, August.
    10. Nan Li, 2011. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 686-704, October.
    11. Andrés Fernández & Daniel Guzmán & Ruy E. Lama & Carlos A. Vegh, 2021. "Procyclical fiscal policy and asset market incompleteness," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 925, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    13. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    14. Dave Chetan & Ghate Chetan & Gopalakrishnan Pawan & Tarafdar Suchismita, 2021. "Fiscal austerity in emerging market economies," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(5), pages 365-391, December.
    15. Notz, Stefan & Rosenkranz, Peter, 2021. "Business cycles in emerging markets: The role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-450.
    16. Sosa-Padilla, César, 2018. "Sovereign defaults and banking crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 88-105.
    17. Sumru Altug & Serdar Kabaca, 2017. "Search Frictions, Financial Frictions, and Labor Market Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(1), pages 128-149, January.
    18. Tiryaki, S. Tolga, 2014. "Sectoral asymmetries in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 465-475.
    19. Mertens, Karel, 2007. "The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops," Working Papers 07-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging Market Business Cycles; Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy; Indian Business Cycle; Interest Rate Shocks; Macroeconomic Stabilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60449. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.