IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/60449.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy in an Emerging Market Business Cycle Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ghate, Chetan
  • Gopalakrishnan, Pawan
  • Tarafdar, Suchismita

Abstract

Emerging market economy business cycles are typically characterized by high consumption and output volatility, strongly counter-cyclical current accounts, and counter-cyclical real interest rates. Evidence from the wider EME and less developed economy business cycle experience suggests however that real interest rates can also be pro-cyclical. We reconcile the pro-cyclicality of real interest rates with the above facts by embedding fiscal policy into a standard emerging market business cycle model. We show that fiscal policy makes real interest rates a-cyclical or pro-cyclical. We use the model to replicate qualitatively some of the key features of the Indian business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Tarafdar, Suchismita, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Emerging Market Business Cycle Model," MPRA Paper 60449, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60449
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60449/1/MPRA_paper_60449.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    2. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    4. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
    5. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    6. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 664, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    8. Maurice J. Roche, 1996. "Government Spending and the International Business Cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 865-884, November.
    9. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    11. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    12. Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Prosperity and Depression: 2002 Richard T. Ely Lecture," Working Papers 618, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    14. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
    15. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    16. Ambler, Steve & Paquet, Alain, 1996. "Fiscal spending shocks, endogenous government spending, and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 237-256.
    17. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    18. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-450, June.
    19. Nan Li, 2011. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 686-704, October.
    20. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 343-357, October.
    21. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    22. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    23. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
    24. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    25. Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Prosperity and Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 1-15, May.
    26. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, March.
    27. Kuehlwein, Michael, 1998. "Evidence on the substitutability between government purchases and consumer spending within specific spending categories," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 325-329, March.
    28. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2013. "Emerging economy business cycles: Financial integration and terms of trade shocks," Working Papers 13/120, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    29. Ni, Shawn, 1995. "An empirical analysis on the substitutability between private consumption and government purchases," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 593-605, December.
    30. Ms. Helene Poirson, 2006. "The Tax System in India: Could Reform Spur Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2006/093, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    32. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    33. Chetan Ghate & Gerhard Glomm & Jialu Liu, 2012. "Sectoral infrastructure investment in an unbalanced growing economy: The Case of India," Discussion Papers 12-07, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    34. Harald Uhlig & Lars Ljungqvist, 2000. "Tax Policy and Aggregate Demand Management under Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 356-366, June.
    35. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    36. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 664, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    37. Tiryaki S. Tolga, 2012. "Interest Rates and Real Business Cycles in Emerging Markets," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-30, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dave Chetan & Ghate Chetan & Gopalakrishnan Pawan & Tarafdar Suchismita, 2021. "Fiscal austerity in emerging market economies," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(5), pages 365-391, December.
    2. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2021. "How quantitatively important is public investment for both business cycle fluctuations and output growth in Bulgaria (1999–2018)?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 126-141, May.
    3. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2021. "Cyclical drivers of fiscal policy in sub-Saharan Africa: New insights from the time-varying heterogeneity approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-67.
    4. Bhattarai, Keshab & Benjasak, Chonlakan, 2021. "Growth and redistribution impacts of income taxes in the Thai Economy: A dynamic CGE analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. Ghosh, Saurabh & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Satija, Sakshi, 2019. "Recapitalization in an Economy with State-Owned Banks - A DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 96981, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Tarafdar, Suchismita, 2016. "Fiscal policy in an emerging market business cycle model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 52-77.
    2. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    3. Sumru Altug & Serdar Kabaca & Meltem Poyraz, 2011. "Search Frictions, Financial Frictions and Labor Market Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1136, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. Serdar Kabaca, 2011. "Labor Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1122, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Carneiro,Francisco Galrao & Hnatkovska,Viktoria, 2016. "Business cycles in the eastern Caribbean economies: the role of fiscal policy and interest rates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7545, The World Bank.
    6. Lathaporn Ratanavararak, 2018. "The Impact of Imperfect Financial Integration and Trade on Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 79, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Michaud, Amanda & Rothert, Jacek, 2018. "Redistributive fiscal policies and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 123-133.
    8. Andrés Fernández, 2010. "€Œtropical†Real Business Cycles? A Bayesian Exploration," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 28(61), pages 60-105, August.
    9. Nan Li, 2011. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 686-704, October.
    10. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    11. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    12. Dave Chetan & Ghate Chetan & Gopalakrishnan Pawan & Tarafdar Suchismita, 2021. "Fiscal austerity in emerging market economies," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(5), pages 365-391, December.
    13. Sosa-Padilla, César, 2018. "Sovereign defaults and banking crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 88-105.
    14. Sumru Altug & Serdar Kabaca, 2017. "Search Frictions, Financial Frictions, and Labor Market Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(1), pages 128-149, January.
    15. Tiryaki, S. Tolga, 2014. "Sectoral asymmetries in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 465-475.
    16. Jacek Rothert, 2020. "International Business Cycles In Emerging Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 753-781, May.
    17. Notz, Stefan & Rosenkranz, Peter, 2021. "Business cycles in emerging markets: The role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-450.
    18. Mertens, Karel, 2007. "The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops," Working Papers 07-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    19. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 113-155.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging Market Business Cycles; Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy; Indian Business Cycle; Interest Rate Shocks; Macroeconomic Stabilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60449. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.