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Business cycles in a small open economy: The case of Hong Kong

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  • Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa
  • Iza Padilla, María Amaya

Abstract

This paper analyzes the business cycle properties of the Hong Kong economy during the 1982-2004 period, which includes the financial crisis experienced in 1997-98. We show that output, output growth rate and real interest rates volatilities in Hong Kong are higher than their respective average volatilities among developed economies. In this paper, we build a stochastic neoclassical small open economy model that seeks to replicate the main business cycle characteristics of Hong Kong, and through which we try to quantify the role played by exogenous Total Factor Productivity (transitory and permanent), real interest rates shocks and financial frictions. The main findings are that the trend volatility has to be higher than the volatility of the transitory fluctuations around the trend; that the volatility of real interest rates are mainly due to country risk spread, and that financial frictions matter to explain real interest rates countercyclicality.

Suggested Citation

  • Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2011. "Business cycles in a small open economy: The case of Hong Kong," DFAEII Working Papers 2011-07, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:6381
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; financial frictions; total factor productiviy; country risk spread; small open economy; neoclassical model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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