IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/koc/wpaper/1110.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Emerging Market Business Cycles Revisited: Learning about the Trend

Author

Listed:
  • Emine Boz

    (IMF)

  • Christian Daude

    (OECD)

  • C. Bora Durdu

    (FRB)

Abstract

We build an equilibrium business cycle model in which agents cannot perfectly distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of TFP shocks and learn about those components using the Kalman filter. Calibrated to Mexico, the model predicts a higher variability of consumption relative to output and a strongly negative correlation between the trade balance and output for a wide range of variability and persistence of permanent shocks vis-a-vis the transitory shocks. Moreover, our estimation for Mexico and Canada suggests more severe informational frictions in emerging markets than in developed economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Emine Boz & Christian Daude & C. Bora Durdu, 2011. "Emerging Market Business Cycles Revisited: Learning about the Trend," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1110, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1110.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    2. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476.
    4. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    5. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    6. George R. Heaton, 1999. "Book:," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 3(4), pages 150-152, October.
    7. Ms. Emine Boz, 2007. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? the Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises," IMF Working Papers 2007/223, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
    9. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118, January.
    10. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    11. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    12. Mr. Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2006/059, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Luca Guerrieri & Dale W. Henderson & Jinill Kim, 2005. "Investment-specific and multifactor productivity in multi-sector open economies: data and analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 828, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1997. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 877-888, December.
    15. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
    16. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    17. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
    18. Emine Boz, 2009. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1189-1215, September.
    19. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    20. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Veldkamp, Laura, 2006. "Learning asymmetries in real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 753-772, May.
    21. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
    22. Oviedo, P. Marcelo, 2005. "World Interest Rate, Business Cycles, and Financial Intermediation in Small Open Economies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    23. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.
    24. Binder, M. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models: Characterisation of the Nature of the Solutions and Their Fully Recursive Computation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9619, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    25. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boz, Emine & Daude, Christian & Bora Durdu, C., 2011. "Emerging market business cycles: Learning about the trend," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 616-631.
    2. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1265-1293, November.
    3. Nan Li, 2011. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 686-704, October.
    4. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Emine Boz & C. Bora Durdu & Nan Li, 2015. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 31-72, February.
    6. Notz, Stefan & Rosenkranz, Peter, 2021. "Business cycles in emerging markets: The role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-450.
    7. Emine Boz & C. Bora Durdu & Nan Li, 2015. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 31-72, February.
    8. Michaud, Amanda & Rothert, Jacek, 2018. "Redistributive fiscal policies and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 123-133.
    9. Akıncı, Özge, 2013. "Global financial conditions, country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 358-371.
    10. Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2011. "Business cycles in a small open economy: The case of Hong Kong," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    11. Adam Gulan & Andres Fernandez, 2012. "Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies.The Role of Financial Frictions," 2012 Meeting Papers 849, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Durdu, C. Bora & Nunes, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio, 2013. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-17.
    13. Mario Crucini, 2012. "Comparing General and Partial Equilibrium Approaches to the Study of Real Business Cycles," 2012 Meeting Papers 1057, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2015. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 153-188, July.
    15. Mertens, Karel, 2007. "The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops," Working Papers 07-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    16. D. Siena, 2014. "The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?," Working papers 501, Banque de France.
    17. Andrés Fernández, 2010. "€Œtropical†Real Business Cycles? A Bayesian Exploration," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 28(61), pages 60-105, August.
    18. C. Bora Durdu, 2013. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: Recent Advances," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 183-199, June.
    19. Kamalyan, Hayk & Davtyan, Vahagn, 2022. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Business Cycle Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 113443, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging markets; business cycles; learning; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dekoctr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sumru Oz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dekoctr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.