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Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises

  • EMINE BOZ

Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic usually occurring after a precrisis bonanza. This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing model with informational frictions in which crisis itself is a--"consequence"--of the investor optimism in the period preceding the crisis. If preceded by a sequence of positive signals, a small, negative noise shock can trigger a downward adjustment in investors' beliefs, asset prices, and consumption. The magnitude of this downward adjustment--"increases"--with the level of optimism attained prior to the negative signal. Moreover, with informational frictions, asset prices display persistent effects in response to transitory shocks. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00252.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (09)
Pages: 1189-1215

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:6:p:1189-1215
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  1. Aiyagari, S.R. & Gertler, M., 1998. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," Working Papers 98-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
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  8. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2003. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception," CEPR Discussion Papers 3725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Aiyagari, S.R. & Gertler, M., 1998. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," Working Papers 98-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  10. Paasche, Bernhard, 2001. "Credit constraints and international financial crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 623-650, December.
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  12. Ian Domowitz & Jack Glen & Ananth Madhavan, 2000. "Liquidity, Volatility, and Equity Trading Costs Across Countries and Over Time," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 322, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  13. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
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