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Technological revolutions and the Three Great Slumps: A medium-run analysis

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  • Cao, Dan
  • L’Huillier, Jean-Paul

Abstract

The Great Recession, the Great Depression, and the Japanese Slump of the 1990s were all preceded by periods of major technological innovation, which happened about 10 years before the start of the decline in economic activity. We estimate a model with noisy news. We find that beliefs about long-run income adjust to permanent shifts in productivity with an important delay. The estimation tells a common and simple story for the observed dynamics of productivity and consumption on a 20 to 25 year window. Our analysis highlights the advantages of a look at this data from the point of view of the medium run.

Suggested Citation

  • Cao, Dan & L’Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2018. "Technological revolutions and the Three Great Slumps: A medium-run analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 93-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:96:y:2018:i:c:p:93-108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.04.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Patrick Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2019. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 123-146, January.
    3. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
    4. Brianti, Marco & Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Information and communication technologies and medium-run fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian & Verona, Fabio, 2019. "Assessing U.S. aggregate fluctuations across time and frequencies," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019, Bank of Finland.
    6. Jean‐Paul L'Huillier & Donghoon Yoo, 2019. "Where is the GE? Consumption Dynamics in DSGEs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1491-1502, September.
    7. Flemming, Jean & L'Huillier, Jean-Paul & Piguillem, Facundo, 2019. "Macro-prudential taxation in good times," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Pascal Paul, 2023. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1641-1665, October.
    9. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Artur Doshchyn, 2022. "Productivity Booms, Bank Fragility, and Financial Crises," Economics Series Working Papers 1027, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Robert Waldmann & Donghoon Yoo, 2021. "Confidence, Fundamentals, and Consumption," ISER Discussion Paper 1135, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    12. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Robert Waldmann & Donghoon Yoo, 2021. "What Is Consumer Confidence?," ISER Discussion Paper 1135r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Dec 2022.
    13. James Bohn, 2021. "Déjà vu All Over Again? Learning from Nonfinancial Business Credit Booms and Busts of the Past," Supervisory Research and Analysis Notes, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue 2021-04, pages 1-32, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregate productivity; Permanent income; Learning; Secular stagnation; Financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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