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Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on “Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?”

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  • Chad Syverson

Abstract

In this article I comment on three aspects of Byrne, Oliner and Sichel’s analyses. First, I show that the patterns in labour productivity growth during the IT era echo those observed during electrification. This includes a slowdown of roughly analogous timing to that observed in 2004-2012 — a slowdown that in the electrification era was followed by a productivity growth acceleration. Second, I discuss the implications of continued divergence in mean and median incomes for the analysis of productivity growth in the long run. Third, I explore further the issue of whether technological progress in semiconductor manufacturing is yielding concomitant increases in semiconductor performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad Syverson, 2013. "Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on “Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?”," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 37-40, Spring.
  • Handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:25:y:2013:4
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    File URL: http://www.csls.ca/ipm/25/IPM-25-Syverson.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    2. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, January-J.
    3. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Ciccarelli & Matteo Gomellini & Paolo Sestito, 2019. "Demography and Productivity in the Italian Manufacturing Industry: Yesterday and Today," CEIS Research Paper 457, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 16 May 2019.
    2. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    3. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    4. Korzinov, Vladimir & Savin, Ivan, 2018. "General Purpose Technologies as an emergent property," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 88-104.
    5. Michael Dotsey, 2016. "Monetary policy and the new normal," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4, January.
    6. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim & John C. Haltiwanger & Zoltan Wolf, 2019. "Innovation, Productivity Dispersion, and Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 103-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jaroslav Vrchota & Monika Mařiková & Petr Řehoř & Ladislav Rolínek & Radek Toušek, 2019. "Human Resources Readiness for Industry 4.0," JOItmC, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Jason Furman, 2018. "Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 317-328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Samuels, Jon D., 2016. "The impact of information technology on postwar US economic growth," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 398-411.
    10. Cao, Dan & L’Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2018. "Technological revolutions and the Three Great Slumps: A medium-run analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 93-108.
    11. Chad Syverson, 2017. "Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 165-186, Spring.
    12. Thor Berger & Carl Benedikt Frey, 2016. "Structural Transformation in the OECD: Digitalisation, Deindustrialisation and the Future of Work," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    13. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    14. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 23-57, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kushlin, Valery Ivanovich (Кушлин, Валерий Иванович) & Ustenko, V.S. (Устенко, В.С.), 2016. "Analysis of International Experience of Intensification of Scientific and Innovative Activity in the Modern Unstable Conditions [Анализ Международного Опыта Активизации Научно-Инновационной Деятель," Working Papers 2832, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    16. Elona Marku & Manuel Castriotta & Michela Loi & Maria Chiara Di Guardo, 2021. "General Purpose Technology: The Blockchain Domain," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(11), pages 192-192, July.
    17. John G. Fernald, 2016. "Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?," Working Paper Series 2016-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. David Robinson, 2015. "The Long-term Outlook and Risks in Advanced Countries," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 7(2), pages 150-178, May.

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