Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on “Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?”
In this article I comment on three aspects of Byrne, Oliner and Sichel’s analyses. First, I show that the patterns in labour productivity growth during the IT era echo those observed during electrification. This includes a slowdown of roughly analogous timing to that observed in 2004-2012 — a slowdown that in the electrification era was followed by a productivity growth acceleration. Second, I discuss the implications of continued divergence in mean and median incomes for the analysis of productivity growth in the long run. Third, I explore further the issue of whether technological progress in semiconductor manufacturing is yielding concomitant increases in semiconductor performance.
Volume (Year): 25 (2013)
Issue (Month): (Spring)
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- David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013.
"Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?,"
International Productivity Monitor,
Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel & David M. Byrne, 2013. "Is the information technology revolution over?," AEI Economics Working Papers 4618, American Enterprise Institute.
- David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the information technology revolution over?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).