From Busts to Booms in Babies and Godies
After the fall in fertility during the Demographic Transition, many developed countries experienced a baby bust, followed by the Baby Boom and subsequently a return to low fertility. Received wisdom from the Demography literature links these large fluctuations in fertility to the series of Economics 'shocks' that occurred with similar timing -- the Great Depression, WWII, the economic expansion that followed and then the productivity slow down of the 1970's. To economists, this line of argument suggests a more general link between fluctuations in output and fertility decisions, of which the Baby-Bust-Boom-Bust event (BBB) is a particularly stark example. This paper is an attempt to formalize the conventional wisdom in simple versions of stochastic growth models with endogenous fertility. First, we develop initial tools to address the effects of ''temporary'' shocks to productivity on fertility choices. Second, we analyze calibrated versions of these models. We can then answer several qualitative and quantitative questions: Under what conditions is fertility pro- or countercyclical? How large are these effects and how is this related to the 'persistence' of the shocks? How much of the BBB can be accounted for by the kinds of medium run productivity fluctuations described as computed from the data? Preliminary results show that under reasonable parameter values fertility is procyclical, that the elasticity of fertility to shocks lays between 1 and 1.7 and, finally, that in our models, productivity shocks capture between 1/3 and 2/3 of the US baby bust and between Â¼ and Â½ of the US baby boom
|Date of creation:||03 Dec 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA|
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2005.
"The Baby Boom and Baby Bust,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 183-207, March.
- Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989.
"Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
- Barro, R.J. & Becker, G.S., 1988. "Fertility Choice In A Model Of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, "undated". "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988.
"A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
- Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, "undated". "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 85-11, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1986. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John W. Kendrick, 1973. "Postwar Productivity Trends in the United States, 1948–1969," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend73-1, Enero.
- repec:cai:poeine:pope_304_0451 is not listed on IDEAS
- Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay Maoz, 2006.
"The Baby Boom and World War II: The Role of Labor Market Experience,"
2006 Meeting Papers
216, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay D. Maoz, 2006. "The Baby Boom and World War II: The Role of Labor Market Experience," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_026, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Aubhik Khan & Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2005.
"Three Equations Generating an Industrial Revolution,"
2005 Meeting Papers
124, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones & Aubhik Khan, 2005. "Three Equations Generating an Industrial Revolution?," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000385, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Michael R. Haines, 1994. "The Population of the United States, 1790-1920," NBER Historical Working Papers 0056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, Enero.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed006:689. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.