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Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises

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  • Pascal Paul

Abstract

To understand the determinants of financial crises, previous research focused on developments closely related to financial markets. In contrast, this paper considers changes originating in the real economy as drivers of financial instability. Based on long-run historical data for advanced economies, I find that rising top income inequality and low productivity growth are robust predictors of crises ? even outperforming well known early-warning indicators such as credit growth. Moreover, if crises are preceded by such developments, output declines more during the subsequent recession. In addition, I show that asset booms explain the relation between income inequality and financial crises in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Pascal Paul, 2017. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," Working Paper Series 2017-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2017-23
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2017-23
    Note: First online version: September 2017.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Edmond Berisha & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Time-Varying Evidence of Predictability of Financial Stress in the United States over a Century: The Role of Inequality," Working Papers 202054, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Josef Schroth, 2021. "On the Distributional Effects of Bank Bailouts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 252-277, April.
    3. Salvatore Morelli, 2018. "Banking crises in the US: the response of top income shares in a historical perspective," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(2), pages 257-294, June.
    4. Paul, Pascal, 2020. "A macroeconomic model with occasional financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Isabel Cairo & Jae Sim, 2017. "Income Inequality, Financial Crises and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 1433, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    7. Kiley, Michael T., 2021. "What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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