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Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability

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  • Maximilian Grimm
  • Òscar Jordà
  • Moritz Schularick
  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

Do periods of persistently loose monetary policy increase financial fragility and the likelihood of a financial crisis? This is a central question for policymakers, yet the literature does not provide systematic empirical evidence about this link at the aggregate level. In this paper we fill this gap by analyzing long-run historical data. We find that when the stance of monetary policy is accommodative over an extended period, the likelihood of financial turmoil down the road increases considerably. We investigate the causal pathways that lead to this result and argue that credit creation and asset price overheating are important intermediating channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximilian Grimm & Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 30958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30958
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    8. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    9. Sepp, Tim Florian & Israel, Karl-Friedrich & Treitz, Benjamin & Hartl, Tom, 2024. "Monetary policy and bank-type resilience in Germany from 1999 to 2022," Working Papers 181, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    10. Kaufmann, Christoph & Leyva, Jaime & Storz, Manuela, 2024. "Insurance corporations’ balance sheets, financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2892, European Central Bank.
    11. Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem & Krichene, Noureddine, 2023. "Theoretical and Analytical Approach of Financial Stability: Islamic Perspective," MPRA Paper 122963, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Feb 2024.
    12. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2023: Konjunktur tastet sich aus der Krise [German Economy in Summer 2023: Crawling out of the crisis]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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