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Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik

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  • Thomas Url

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die Zentralbanken der USA und des Euro-Raums beendeten 2022 ihre Wertpapierankaufsprogramme und begannen im März bzw. Juli mit der Anhebung ihrer Leitzinssätze. Sie reagierten damit auf den Inflationsanstieg, der im Jahresverlauf auch zu einer Beschleunigung der Kerninflation führte. Das Kreditvolumen legte im 1. Halbjahr 2022 noch deutlich zu, die Eintrübung der Konjunkturaussichten, der abflauende Lageraufbau nach der Wiederherstellung der Lieferketten und der scharfe Zinsanstieg dämpften jedoch gegen Jahresende die Kreditnachfrage. Gleichzeitig verschärften die Kreditinstitute ihre Vergaberichtlinien. Sie entsprachen damit auch den strengeren makroprudenziellen Anforderungen für die Neuvergabe von Immobiliendarlehen, die die Finanzmarktaufsicht ab August 2022 verordnet hatte. Der Jahresüberschuss der Kreditwirtschaft schrumpfte 2022 wegen höherer Vorsorgen für Kreditrisiken und Wertberichtigungen für Wertpapiere und Beteiligungen. Ausgeprägte Kursverluste an den Börsen dämpften nicht nur das Provisionsergebnis der Kreditinstitute, sondern auch die Marktkapitalisierung der Wiener Börse (2022: 26% des BIP). Kursverluste des Euro gegenüber dem Dollar, den daran gebundenen Währungen sowie dem Rubel führten zu einer nominell-effektiven Abwertung um 1,5%. Die im Vergleich zu den Handelspartnern niedrigere Inflationsrate in Österreich verstärkte die Abwertung auf 2%.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2023:i:4:p:269-281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ursula Glauninger & Thomas Url & Klaus Vondra, 2023. "Energy price shock poses additional challenge to Austria’s price competitiveness," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2-Q3/23, pages 67-97.
    2. Josef Baumgartner & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Benjamin Bittschi & Christian Glocker & Christine Mayrhuber & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2023. "Geopolitische Spannungen, Energiekrise und Teuerung bestimmen die Konjunktur. Die österreichische Wirtschaft im Jahr 2022," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 249-267, April.
    3. Josef Baumgartner & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Benjamin Bittschi & Christian Glocker & Christine Mayrhuber & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2023. "Geopolitical Tensions, Energy Crisis and Inflation Shape Economic Activity. The Austrian Economy in 2022," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 7, May.
    4. Schütz, Marlies & Ploder, Michael & Polt, Wolfgang & Kattel, Rainer & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2025. "Zeit für eine Industriepolitik in Deutschland? Eine Auseinandersetzung mit Rechtfertigungen, Risiken und Rahmenbedingungen," Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 4-2025, Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI) - Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation, Berlin.

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