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Bad news for the Fed from the Beveridge space

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier J Blanchard

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Alex Domash

    (Harvard University)

  • Lawrence H. Summers

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

The Federal Reserve seeks to cool an overheated US labor market to ease wage hikes and reduce job vacancies, without a painful spike in unemployment. But empirical evidence indicates that these goals have never been accomplished together and remain unlikely now. In fact, fighting inflation will require a reduction in job vacancies and also an increase in unemployment. The inverse relationship between job vacancies and unemployment is measured by the Beveridge curve, named after a British economist. Blanchard, Domash, and Summers find that the Fed's hope that vacancies can be decreased without increasing unemployment flies in the face of historical empirical evidence. The current low unemployment rate and the very high vacancy-to-unemployment ratio suggest that the labor market is overheating and the natural unemployment rate has increased. It has increased about 1.3 percentage points from its pre-COVID level, implying the labor market is even more overheated than suggested by the current unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier J Blanchard & Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "Bad news for the Fed from the Beveridge space," Policy Briefs PB22-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb22-7
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    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/bad-news-fed-beveridge-space
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    Cited by:

    1. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2023. "Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of U.S. Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession," Working Papers 319, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    3. David Blanchflower & Alex Bryson & Jackson Spurling, 2024. "The wage curve after the Great Recession," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 653-668, April.
    4. Christopher J. Waller, 2023. "The Unstable Phillips Curve: a speech at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy, a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California, March 31, 2023," Speech 95912, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Guénette, Justin Damien & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "Is a Global Recession Imminent?," MPRA Paper 114627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Laurence M. Ball & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Ms. Prachi Mishra, 2022. "Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era," IMF Working Papers 2022/208, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times," NBER Working Papers 29785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2023. "Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession," Working Papers 2306, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    10. Brandyn Bok & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Robert G. Valletta & Mary Yilma, 2022. "Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(24), pages 1-6, August.
    11. Lee, King Fuei, 2023. "Is Singapore’s Beveridge Curve Suffering From Long Covid Shifts?," MPRA Paper 117841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Gadi Barlevy & R. Jason Faberman & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts," NBER Working Papers 31783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    14. Rostislav I. Kapeliushnikov, 2023. "The Russian labor market: Long-term trends and short-term fluctuations," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 9(3), pages 245-270, October.
    15. Diogo Martins, 2024. "The post-pandemic inflation debate: a critical review," Working Papers REM 2024/0308, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.

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