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Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus Under Supply Constraints

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Listed:
  • di Giovanni, Julian
  • Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem
  • Silva, Alvaro
  • Yildirim, Muhammed

Abstract

This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy on U.S. inflation over the Dec-2019 to June-2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and that the fiscal stimulus contributed half or more of the total aggregate demand effect.

Suggested Citation

  • di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Silva, Alvaro & Yildirim, Muhammed, 2023. "Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus Under Supply Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 17828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17828
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego A. Comin & Robert C. Johnson & Callum J. Jones, 2023. "Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 31179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    3. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Supply constraints;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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