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Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus Under Supply Constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Di Giovanni, Julian
  • Kalemli-Özcan, á¹¢ebnem
  • Silva, Alvaro
  • Yildirim, Muhammed

Abstract

This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy on U.S. inflation over the Dec-2019 to June-2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and that the fiscal stimulus contributed half or more of the total aggregate demand effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, á¹¢ebnem & Silva, Alvaro & Yildirim, Muhammed, 2023. "Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus Under Supply Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 17828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17828
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    2. Jeworrek, Sabrina & Tonzer, Lena, 2025. "Inflation concerns and financial stress," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    4. Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2024. "U.S. wage-price dynamics, before, during and after COVID-19, through the lens of an empirical econometric model," Memorandum 1/2024, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    6. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    7. Aspachs, Oriol & Graziano, Alberto & Mestres, Josep & Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2024. "Spending response to cash transfers to shield households from inflation: Evidence from bank accounts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    8. Willem Thorbecke, 2025. "The Impact of Inflation on the U.S. Stock Market After the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, January.
    9. Diego A. Comin & Robert C. Johnson & Callum J. Jones, 2023. "Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 31179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Alvaro Silva, 2024. "Inflation in Disaggregated Small Open Economies," Working Papers 24-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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