IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/30892.html

Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus Under Supply Constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Julian di Giovanni
  • Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
  • Alvaro Silva
  • Muhammed A. Yildirim

Abstract

This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy on U.S. inflation over the Dec-2019 to June-2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and that the fiscal stimulus contributed half or more of the total aggregate demand effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian di Giovanni & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2023. "Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus Under Supply Constraints," NBER Working Papers 30892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30892
    Note: EFG IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30892.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Garcia-Revelo, José & Levieuge, Grégory & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2025. "Revisiting 15 years of unusual transatlantic monetary policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Kaori Ochi, 2026. "Understanding Post-Pandemic Inflation in Japan and the U.S.: A Narrative Sign Restriction Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 26-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    4. Gunnar Bårdsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2025. "U.S. Wage‐Price Dynamics, Before, During and After COVID‐19, Through the Lens of an Empirical Econometric Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(6), pages 1122-1145, December.
    5. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    6. Aspachs, Oriol & Graziano, Alberto & Mestres, Josep & Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2024. "Spending response to cash transfers to shield households from inflation: Evidence from bank accounts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    7. Willem Thorbecke, 2025. "The Impact of Inflation on the U.S. Stock Market After the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Diego A. Comin & Robert C. Johnson & Callum J. Jones, 2023. "Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 31179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alvaro Silva, 2024. "Inflation in Disaggregated Small Open Economies," Working Papers 24-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.
    11. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2026. "Decomposing Supply‐ and Demand‐Driven Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 365-388, March.
    12. Jeworrek, Sabrina & Tonzer, Lena, 2025. "Inflation concerns and financial stress," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    13. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    14. Šestořád, Tomáš & Dvořáková, Natálie, 2026. "Origins of post-COVID-19 inflation in Central European countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 50(1).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guerini, Mattia & Nesta, Lionel & Ragot, Xavier & Schiavo, Stefano, 2024. "Zombification of the economy? Assessing the effectiveness of French government support during COVID-19 lockdown," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 263-280.
    2. Marco Bottone & Cristina Conflitti & Marianna Riggi & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "Firms' inflation expectations and pricing strategies during Covid-19," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 619, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Hale, Galina & Leer, John & Nechio, Fernanda, 2025. "Fiscal policy design and inflation: The COVID-19 pandemic experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A Yildirim, "undated". "Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    6. Alloysius Joko PURWANTO & Ridwan Dewayanto RUSLI & Hafis Pratama Rendra GRAHA & Sirichai KOONAPHAPDEELERT & Reza Miftahul ULUM & Citra Endah Nur SETYAWATI & Nadiya PRANINDITA & Ryan Wiratama BHASKARA, 2025. "Global Pandemic Shocks, Foreign Exposure and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Korean Firm-level Data," Working Papers DP-2024-38, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    7. Gottlieb Charles & Grobovšek Jan & Poschke Markus & Saltiel Fernando, 2022. "Lockdown Accounting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 197-210, January.
    8. Guido Bulligan & Francesco Corsello & Stefano Neri & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "De-anchored long-term inflation expectations in a low growth, low rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 624, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Ye, Yanyi & Wang, Hongping & Tian, Kailan & Li, Meng, 2024. "Supply chain risks and the cost of debt: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    10. Inna Čábelková & Luboš Smutka & Svitlana Rotterova & Olesya Zhytna & Vít Kluger & David Mareš, 2022. "The Sustainability of International Trade: The Impact of Ongoing Military Conflicts, Infrastructure, Common Language, and Economic Wellbeing in Post-Soviet Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-14, August.
    11. Daniel Rees, 2020. "What Comes Next?," BIS Working Papers 898, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. De Lorenzo Buratta, Ivan & Pinheiro, Tiago, 2025. "Sovereign loan guarantees and financial stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    13. Agostino Consolo & Filippos Petroulakis, 2024. "Did COVID‐19 induce a reallocation wave?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(364), pages 1349-1390, October.
    14. Jaravel, Xavier & O'Connell, Martin, 2020. "Real-time price indices: Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    15. Dong, Zhanyu & Cai, Jiayi & Li, Xuchao & Luan, Mengna, 2025. "Firm-level impacts and recovery dynamics following a public health crisis: Lessons from China’s SARS experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    16. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2025. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 28-41, January.
    17. Anton I. Votinov & Julia A. Polshchikova & Karen A. Nersisyan, 2025. "Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 62-73, February.
    18. Sebestyén, Tamás & Szabó, Norbert & Braun, Emese & Bedő, Zsolt, 2024. "Lokális reziliencia számítása térbeli általános egyensúlyi modell felhasználásával [Measuring local resilience with a spatial computable general equilibrium model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1222-1253.
    19. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2024. "Oil, Gas, Pandemics, and War: The Drivers of Inflation," CEIS Research Paper 582, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 Apr 2026.
    20. Yuran Sun & Xiaohui Chen & Zhenmin Wang, 2025. "Climate Finance: Employment Opportunity or Alternative Crisis: Evidence From Chinese Listed Companies," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 402-416, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30892. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.