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The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk

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  • Alin Marius Andries

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Steven Ongena

    (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

  • Nicu Sprincean

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi)

Abstract

Governments around the world are tackling the COVID-19 pandemic with a mix of public health, fiscal, macroprudential, monetary, or market-based policies. We assess the impact of the pandemic in Europe on sovereign CDS spreads using an event study methodology. We find that a higher number of cases and deaths and public health containment responses significantly increase the uncertainty among investors in European government bonds. Other governmental policies magnify the effect in the short run as supply chains are disrupted.

Suggested Citation

  • Alin Marius Andries & Steven Ongena & Nicu Sprincean, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-42, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2042
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    6. Di Tommaso, Caterina & Foglia, Matteo & Pacelli, Vincenzo, 2023. "The impact and the contagion effect of natural disasters on sovereign credit risk. An empirical investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Looking for a safe haven against American stocks during COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Ongena, Steven & Moreno Ibáñez, Antonio & Ventula Veghazy, Alexia & Wagner, Alexander F., 2022. "“Long GFC†? The Global Financial Crisis, Health Care, and COVID-19 Deaths," CEPR Discussion Papers 15900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Amr Hosny & Kevin Pallara, 2023. "Economic Activity, Fiscal Space and Types of COVID-19 Containment Measures," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 319-355, November.
    10. Capraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2023. "Fiscal Rules, Independent Fiscal Institutions, and Sovereign Risk," Working Papers of Romania Fiscal Council 230201, Romania Fiscal Council.
    11. Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Borri, Nicola & Consiglio, Andrea, 2023. "Breakup and default risks in the great lockdown," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
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    13. Maria Czech, 2022. "The Impact of Covid-19 Dynamics on SCDS Spreads in Selected CEE Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 254-271.
    14. Trinh, Cong Tam & Chao, Chi-Chur & Ho, Nhut Quang, 2023. "Private health insurance consumption and public health-care provision in OECD countries: Impact of culture, finance, and the pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Linkage dynamics of sovereign credit risk and financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Giménez, Víctor & Prior, Diego & Thieme, Claudio & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2024. "International comparisons of COVID-19 pandemic management: What can be learned from activity analysis techniques?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Menna Bizuneh & Menelik Geremew, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Emerging Market Economies’ (EMEs) Sovereign Bond Risk Premium and Fiscal Solvency," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 519-545, October.
    18. Aymeric Ortmans & Fabien Tripier, 2020. "COVID-Induced Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area: When Did the ECB Stop the Contagion?," Working Papers 2020-11, CEPII research center.

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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