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Loose monetary policy and financial instability

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  • Taylor, Alan M.
  • Grimm, Maximilian
  • Jordà , Ã’scar
  • Schularick, Moritz

Abstract

Do periods of persistently loose monetary policy increase financial fragility and the likelihood of a financial crisis? This is a central question for policymakers, yet the literature does not provide systematic empirical evidence about this link at the aggregate level. In this paper we fill this gap by analyzing long-run historical data. We find that when the stance of monetary policy is accommodative over an extended period, the likelihood of financial turmoil down the road increases considerably. We investigate the causal pathways that lead to this result and argue that credit creation and asset price overheating are important intermediating channels.

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  • Taylor, Alan M. & Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Ã’scar & Schularick, Moritz, 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17896
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    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2023: Konjunktur tastet sich aus der Krise [German Economy in Summer 2023: Crawling out of the crisis]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Kaufmann, Christoph & Leyva, Jaime & Storz, Manuela, 2024. "Insurance corporations’ balance sheets, financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2892, European Central Bank.
    5. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    6. Alberto Botta & Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2023. "Same old song: On the macroeconomic and distributional effects of leaving a Low Interest Rate Environment," Working Papers PKWP2310, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    7. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.
    8. Gächter, Martin & Hasler, Elias & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Kicking the can down the road: A historical growth-at-risk perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    9. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending," Working Papers of BETA 2023-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Crisis prediction; Monetary policy; Natural rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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