Technological Revolutions and Debt Hangovers - Is There a Link?
Using a model in which anticipations about the future determine current spending, we take a medium-frequency look at time series data around the Great Recession, the Great Depression, and the Japanese crisis of the 1990s. This leads us to highlight some common features of these three episodes: in all three cases we observe a boom followed by a slowdown in permanent productivity, with a peak about 10 years before the start of the recession. Spending follows a similar pattern, but with an important lag, that we estimate to be of 5 years. In our model, spending adjusts slowly due to imperfect information. Since spending remains high when productivity has already slowed down, a large accumulation of debt ensues. When agents finally recognize the slowdown of productivity, a deleveraging process takes place. The deleveraging drags the economy into a long consumption slump. The whole process, from the increase of productivity rates to the start of the decline in consumption, takes about 25 to 30 years. In the three cases, the pickup of productivity coincides with previously documented economy-wide technological changes.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:||Feb 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Sallustiana, 62 - 00187 Roma|
Phone: +39 066790013
Fax: +39 0647924872
Web page: http://www.eief.it/repec
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006.
"Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," 2006 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Emine Boz & Christian Daude & C. Bora Durdu, 2011.
"Emerging Market Business Cycles Revisited: Learning about the Trend,"
Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers
1110, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Emine Boz & Christian Daude & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend," International Finance Discussion Papers 927, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002.
"Closing Small Open Economy Models,"
NBER Working Papers
9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Boz, Emine & Daude, Christian & Bora Durdu, C., 2011. "Emerging market business cycles: Learning about the trend," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 616-631.
- Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael & Laubach, Thomas, 2011.
"Long-run growth expectations and 'global imbalances',"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2011,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2011. "Long-run growth expectations and "global imbalances"," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2006.
"Modeling the transition to a new economy: lessons from two technological revolutions,"
296, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2007. "Modeling the Transition to a New Economy: Lessons from Two Technological Revolutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 64-88, March.
- Robert J. Gordon & Robert Krenn, 2010. "The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Policy Contributions and Fiscal Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 16380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009.
"Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1451-1483, September.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007.
"Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," NBER Working Papers 10734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
- Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eie:wpaper:1216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Facundo Piguillem)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.