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Debt Overhang and Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • James Bullard
  • Jacek Suda

    (Banque de France)

  • Aarti Singh

    (University of Sydney)

  • Costas Azariadis

    (Washington University in St Louis)

Abstract

We study a theory in which households borrow during the first half of a 241-period life cycle as part of a DSGE. Households confront a persistent regime-switching process on aggregate labor productivity growth. When the economy switches to the high growth regime, there is more borrowing based on expectations of higher future income. When the economy switches back to the low growth regime, some households will have borrowed "too much" given contemporaneous income levels–the hallmark of debt overhang. A powerful central bank can intervene in private credit markets to influence real yields. If the central bank does intervene to keep real rates lower, consumption will be reallocated relative to a laissez faire case. The reallocation will generally be away from those households saving for retirement and possibly away from those households that are heavy users of money to smooth income fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • James Bullard & Jacek Suda & Aarti Singh & Costas Azariadis, 2014. "Debt Overhang and Monetary Policy," 2014 Meeting Papers 948, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:948
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Yi Wen, 2013. "Evaluating unconventional monetary policies -why aren’t they more effective?," Working Papers 2013-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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