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Long-run growth expectations and 'global imbalances'

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  • Hoffmann, Mathias
  • Krause, Michael
  • Laubach, Thomas

Abstract

This paper examines to what extent the build-up of 'global imbalances' since the mid-1990s can be explained in a purely real open-economy DSGE model in which agents' perceptions of long-run growth are based on filtering observed changes in productivity. We show that long-run growth estimates based on filtering U.S. productivity data comove strongly with long-horizon survey expectations. By simulating the model in which agents filter data on U.S. productivity growth, we closely match the U.S. current account evolution. Moreover, with household preferences that control the wealth effect on labor supply, we can generate output movements in line with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael & Laubach, Thomas, 2011. "Long-run growth expectations and 'global imbalances'," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201101
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
    2. Charles Engel & John H Rogers, 2009. "Expected Consumption Growth from Cross-Country Surveys: Implications for Assessing International Capital Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 543-573, August.
    3. Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
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    5. Chen, Kaiji & Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 2009. "A quantitative assessment of the decline in the U.S. current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1135-1147, November.
    6. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    7. Kollmann, Robert, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 945-961, May.
    8. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
    9. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    10. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.
    11. Martin Feldstein, 2008. "Resolving the Global Imbalance: The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 113-125, Summer.
    12. Mico Loretan, 2005. "Indexes of the foreign exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Win, pages 1-8.
    13. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
    14. Feldstein, Martin, 2008. "Resolving the Global Imbalance: The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate," Scholarly Articles 2792081, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. D. Siena, 2014. "The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?," Working papers 501, Banque de France.
    2. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and U.S. house prices before and after the crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 394-409.
    3. Dan Cao & Jean-Paul L'Huillier, 2012. "Technological Revolutions and Debt Hangovers - Is There a Link?," EIEF Working Papers Series 1216, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Feb 2013.
    4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:201-210 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bettendorf, Timo, 2017. "Investigating Global Imbalances: Empirical evidence from a GVAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 201-210.
    6. David Amdur & Eylem Ersal Kiziler, 2014. "Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 494-516, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    open economy DSGE models; trend growth; Kalman filter; real-time data; news and business cycles; current account;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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