IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mkg/wpaper/0505.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A New Method for Combining Detrending Techniques with Application to Business Cycle Synchronization of the New EU Members

Author

Listed:
  • Zsolt Darvas
  • Gábor Vadas

Abstract

Decomposing output into trend and cyclical components is an uncertain exercise and depends on the method applied. It is an especially dubious task for countries undergoing large structural changes, such as transition countries. Despite their deficiencies, however, univariate detrending methods are frequently adopted for both policy oriented and academic research. This paper proposes a new procedure for combining univariate detrending techniques which is based on revisions of the estimated output gaps adjusted by the variance of and the correlation among output gaps. The procedure is applied to the study of the similarity of business cycles between the euro area and new EU Member States.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Vadas, 2005. "A New Method for Combining Detrending Techniques with Application to Business Cycle Synchronization of the New EU Members," Working Papers 0505, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    • Handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:0505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web.uni-corvinus.hu/matkg/working_papers/wp_2005_5_darvas_vadas.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. András Simon & Zsolt Darvas, 2000. "Potential Output and Foreign Trade in Small Open Economies," MNB Working Papers 2000/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    2. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2010. "Business Cycle Correlation of the New Meber States with Eurozone - The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 16-31, December.
    3. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2007. "Is Sterilized Intervention Effective? New International Evidence," Working Papers 142007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    2. Richard Ashley & Randal Verbrugge, 2009. "Frequency Dependence in Regression Model Coefficients: An Alternative Approach for Modeling Nonlinear Dynamic Relationships in Time Series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 4-20.
    3. Liang, Kuo-Yuan & Yen, Chen-Hui, 2014. "Dissecting the cycles: An intermarket investigation and its implications to portfolio reallocation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 39-51.
    4. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Maarten Dossche & Andrea Gavazzi & Vivien Lewis, 2023. "Labor Adjustment and Productivity in the OECD," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 111-130, January.
    6. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Nath, Hiranya K., 2016. "A note on the cyclical behavior of sectoral employment in the U.S," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 52-61.
    8. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2021. "Does Hamilton’s OLS Regression Provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott Filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 151-183, November.
    9. Rua, Antonio & Nunes, Luis C., 2005. "Coincident and leading indicators for the euro area: A frequency band approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 503-523.
    10. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
    11. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    12. Alfred A. Haug & Ian P. King, 2011. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1128, The University of Melbourne.
    13. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Marco Piazza & Andrea Roventini, 2009. "Detrending and the Distributional Properties of U.S. Output Time Series," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3155-3161.
    14. Alessandra Iacobucci & Alain Noullez, 2005. "A Frequency Selective Filter for Short-Length Time Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 75-102, February.
    15. Davide Furceri & Georgios Karras, 2011. "Average Tax Rate Cyclicality in OECD Countries: A Test of Three Fiscal Policy Theories," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 958-972, April.
    16. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2022. "Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 152-168, January.
    17. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2012. "Money, Output, And Inflation In The Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 773-787, July.
    18. Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Measuring and Analyzing the Common and Idiosyncratic Cycles: An Application for Turkish Manufacturing Industry," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 279-300, June.
    19. Robert J. Hodrick, 2020. "An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data," NBER Working Papers 26750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. João Valle e Azevedo, 2007. "A Multivariate Band-Pass Filter," Working Papers w200717, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    combination; detrending; new EU members; OCA; output gap; revision;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:0505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Balazs Varga The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Balazs Varga to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mkbkehu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.