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Detrending and the Distributional Properties of U.S. Output Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Fagiolo
  • Mauro Napoletano
  • Marco Piazza
  • Andrea Roventini

Abstract

We study the impact of alternative detrending techniques on the distributional properties of U.S. output time series. We detrend GDP and industrial production time series employing first-differencing, Hodrick-Prescott and bandpass filters. We show that the resulting distributions can be approximated by symmetric Exponential-Power densities, with tails fatter than those of a Gaussian. We also employ frequency-band decomposition procedures finding that fat tails occur more likely at high and medium business-cycle frequencies. These results confirm the robustness of the fat-tail property of detrended output time-series distributions and suggest that business-cycle models should take into account this empirical regularity.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Marco Piazza & Andrea Roventini, 2009. "Detrending and the Distributional Properties of U.S. Output Time Series," LEM Papers Series 2009/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2009/14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    3. Simona Delle Chiaie, 2009. "The sensitivity of DSGE models’ results to data detrending," Working Papers 157, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2009. "The patterns of output growth of firms and countries: Scale invariances and scale specificities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 475-495, December.
    5. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    7. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2003. "Sectoral Specifities in the Dynamics of U.S. Manufacturing Firms," LEM Papers Series 2003/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
    9. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-150, January.
    10. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2006. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Symmetric and Asymmetric Exponential Power Distribution," LEM Papers Series 2006/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Bottazzi, Giulio & Secchi, Angelo, 2003. "Why are distributions of firm growth rates tent-shaped?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 415-420, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ascari, Guido & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2015. "Fat-Tail Distributions And Business-Cycle Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 465-476, March.
    2. repec:eee:eecrev:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:293-317 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Federico Favaretto & Donato Masciandaro, 2014. "Behavioral Economics and Monetary Policy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1501, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Duenas, 2012. "The Evolution of the Business Cycles and Growth Rates Distributions," LEM Papers Series 2012/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Sandro Claudio Lera & Didier Sornette, 2017. "GDP growth rates as confined L\'evy flights," Papers 1709.05594, arXiv.org.
    6. Reiner Franke, 2015. "How Fat-Tailed is US Output Growth?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 213-242, May.
    7. Williams, Michael A. & Baek, Grace & Li, Yiyang & Park, Leslie Y. & Zhao, Wei, 2017. "Global evidence on the distribution of GDP growth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 750-758.
    8. De Grauwe, Paul, 2012. "Booms and busts in economic activity: A behavioral explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 484-501.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Statistical Distributions; Detrending; HP Filter; Bandpass Filter; Normality; Fat Tails; Time Series; Exponential-Power Density; Business Cycles Dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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