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Fat-Tail Distributions And Business-Cycle Models

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  • Ascari, Guido
  • Fagiolo, Giorgio
  • Roventini, Andrea

Abstract

Recent empirical findings suggest that macroeconomic variables are seldom normally distributed. For example, the distributions of aggregate output growth-rate time series of many OECD countries are well approximated by symmetric exponential-power (EP) densities with Laplace fat tails. In this work, we assess whether real business cycle (RBC) and standard medium-scale New Keynesian (NK) models are able to replicate this statistical regularity. We simulate both models, drawing Gaussian- vs Laplace-distributed shocks, and we explore the statistical properties of simulated time series. Our results cast doubts on whether RBC and NK models are able to provide a satisfactory representation of the transmission mechanisms linking exogenous shocks to macroeconomic dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ascari, Guido & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2015. "Fat-Tail Distributions And Business-Cycle Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 465-476, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:19:y:2015:i:02:p:465-476_00
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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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