IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2013i1p39-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Foreign Direct Investment based on Country Risk and other Macroconomic Factors. Econometric Models for Romanian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Savoiu, Gheorghe

    (University of Pitesti, Pitesti)

  • Dinu, Vasile

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

  • Ciuca, Suzana

    (University of Pitesti, Pitesti)

Abstract

The paper identifies several econometric models of Foreign Direct Investment focused on the country risk, which can also signal other macroeconomic indicators in Romania after 1996, according to World Bank and major rating agencies. The introduction presents the oscillation between micro- and macro-economic significance in conceptual interpretation, followed by a review of the literature. A methodology and database section provides the statistical support. The results consist in econometric models, parameterized in EViews. The modelling focused on Euromoney and Standard&Poor’s country risk has proved to be competitive. The findings and conclusions amplify the importance of Foreign Direct Investment models, as a development factor even in times of recession, highlighting the increasing importance of the country risk signal.

Suggested Citation

  • Savoiu, Gheorghe & Dinu, Vasile & Ciuca, Suzana, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment based on Country Risk and other Macroconomic Factors. Econometric Models for Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 39-61, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:1:p:39-61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_13/rjef1_2013p39-61.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fathi Ali & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Do Institutions Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 201-219, April.
    2. Matthias Busse & José Luis Groizard, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment, Regulations and Growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7), pages 861-886, July.
    3. Avinash Dixit, 2011. "International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Security," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 191-213, September.
    4. Sofronis Clerides & Pascal Courty & Yupei Ma, 2023. "Store expensiveness and consumer saving: Insights from a new decomposition of price dispersion," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 65-94, March.
    5. Ushijima, Tatsuo, 2008. "Domestic bank health and foreign direct investment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 291-309, September.
    6. Gheorghe SAVOIU & Suzana POPA, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) In Romania," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 60(1), pages 42-56, February.
    7. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2007. "Foreign direct investment and macroeconomic risk," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 509-519, September.
    8. Basu, Parantap & Guariglia, Alessandra, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment, inequality, and growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 824-839, December.
    9. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2006. "Trends in the Interest Rate - Investment - GDP Growth Relationship," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(3), pages 5-13, September.
    10. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    11. Mohsin Habib & Leon Zurawicki, 2002. "Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 33(2), pages 291-307, June.
    12. Lucian-Liviu Albu & Vasile Dinu, 2009. "How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(Number Sp), pages 675-683, November.
    13. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2010. "Business Cycle Correlation of the New Meber States with Eurozone - The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 16-31, December.
    14. Gheorghe Săvoiu & Vasile Dinu & Laurenţiu Tăchiciu, 2012. "Romania Foreign Trade in Global Recession, Revealed by the Extended Method of Exchange Rate Indicators," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(31), pages 173-194, February.
    15. Kottaridi, Constantina & Stengos, Thanasis, 2010. "Foreign direct investment, human capital and non-linearities in economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 858-871, September.
    16. Roberto A. De Santis & Frank Stähler, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Taxes," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(1), pages 115-135, February.
    17. John Francis & CongCong Zheng & Ananda Mukherji, 2009. "An Institutional Perspective on Foreign Direct Investment," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 565-583, October.
    18. N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
    19. Ruxanda, Gheorghe & Muraru, Andreea, 2010. "FDI And Economic Growth. Evidence From Simultaneous Equation Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 45-58, March.
    20. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 44-50, June.
    21. Harri Ramcharran, 1999. "Foreign direct investment and country risk: Further empirical evidence," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 49-59.
    22. Selin Sayek, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Inflation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 319-443, October.
    23. Roberto A. De Santis & Frank Stähler, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Taxes," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(1), pages 115-135, February.
    24. Herciu, Mihaela & Ogrean, Claudia, 2011. "A Model for Measuring the National Global Performance and Analyzing its Determinants – The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 163-177, December.
    25. A. J. Khadaroo & B. Seetanah, 2010. "Transport infrastructure and foreign direct investment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 103-123.
    26. Unctad, 2009. "Global Foreign Direct Investment In Decline," Transnational Corporations Review, Ottawa United Learning Academy, vol. 1(2), pages 1-3, June.
    27. Holger Görg & Liza Jabbour, 2009. "Multinational Enterprises and Foreign Direct Investment: Introduction," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 1-5, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adriana Burlea‐Schiopoiu & Simina Brostescu & Liviu Popescu, 2023. "The impact of foreign direct investment on the economic development of emerging countries of the European Union," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2148-2177, April.
    2. Sebastian Madalin Munteanu & Irina-Eugenia Iamandi & Eugeniu Tudor, 2015. "Evaluation Model of the Entrepreneurial Character in EU Countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 17(38), pages 1-76, February.
    3. Maria Chiara Di Guardo & Emanuela Marrocu & Raffaele Paci, 2016. "The Concurrent Impact of Cultural, Political, and Spatial Distances on International Mergers and Acquisitions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 824-852, June.
    4. Gheorghe Savoiu & Simina Brostescu, 2017. "Three International Statistical Indicators And Their Factorial Impact On The Modelling Of Foreign Investments In Romania," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(8), pages 174-188, August.
    5. Adrian Grosanu & Cristina Bota-Avram & Paula Ramona Rachisan & Roumen Vesselinov, 2015. "The Influence of Country-Level Governance on Business Environment and Entrepreneurship: a Global Perspective," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 17(38), pages 1-60, February.
    6. Nino Kokashvili & Irakli Barbakadze, 2020. "Does Polarized Political Environment Hamper Foreign Investors? The Evidence from Parliamentary Democracies," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(1), pages 45-73, March.
    7. Balaban, Suzana & Živkov, Dejan & Milenković, Ivan, 2019. "Impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI: Evidence from transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    8. Bojnec, Štefan & Ferto, Imre, 2014. "Outward Foreign Direct Iinvestments and Merchandise Exports: The European OECD Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 87-99, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gheorghe Savoiu & Simina Brostescu, 2017. "Three International Statistical Indicators And Their Factorial Impact On The Modelling Of Foreign Investments In Romania," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(8), pages 174-188, August.
    2. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:8:y:2018:i:4:p:324-351 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cristina JUDE & Grégory LEVIEUGE, 2013. "Growth Effect of FDI in Developing Economies: the Role of Institutional Quality," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2251, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    4. Ines TROJETTE, 2016. "The Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment On Economic Growth: The Institutional Threshold," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 43, pages 111-138.
    5. Dorożyński Tomasz & Kuna-Marszałek Anetta, 2016. "Investments Attractiveness. The Case Of The Visegrad Group Countries," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 119-140, March.
    6. Nombulelo BRAITON & Nicholas M. ODHIAMBO, 2024. "Capital Flows And Institutional Quality: A Systematic Literature Review," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 113-123, March.
    7. Cristina Jude & Gregory Levieuge, 2017. "Growth Effect of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Economies: The Role of Institutional Quality," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 715-742, April.
    8. Mumtaz Hussain Shah, 2017. "Political Institutions and the Incidence of FDI in South Asia," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(1), pages 21-42, March.
    9. Akhtaruzzaman, M. & Berg, Nathan & Hajzler, Christopher, 2017. "Expropriation risk and FDI in developing countries: Does return of capital dominate return on capital?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 84-107.
    10. Md Gyasuddin Ansari & Rudra Sensarma, 2022. "Does Economic Freedom Influence the FDI - Growth Nexus in BRICSASEAN Economies?," Working papers 530, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    11. Fuzhong Chen & Guohai Jiang, 2021. "Investigating the Impact of Institutional Quality on FDI: Are There Promotional Effects in Economic Integration Regions?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
    12. Bailey, Nicholas, 2018. "Exploring the relationship between institutional factors and FDI attractiveness: A meta-analytic review," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 139-148.
    13. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2021. "Policy uncertainty and foreign direct investment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 195-227, May.
    14. Mariem Brahim & Houssem Rachdi, 2014. "Foreign Direct Investment, Institutions and Economic Growth: Evidence from the MENA Region," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 328-339.
    15. Yixing Yang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Salma Karim, 2021. "Do Tourism and Institutional Quality Asymmetrically Effects on FDI Sustainability in BIMSTEC Countries: An Application of ARDL, CS-ARDL, NARDL, and Asymmetric Causality Test," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-29, September.
    16. Judit Kapás & Pál Czeglédi, 2020. "The impact of culture on FDI disentangled: separating the “level” and the “distance” effects," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(1), pages 223-250, April.
    17. Carike Claassen & Elsabé Loots & Henri Bezuidenhout, 2011. "Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Africa," Working Papers 261, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    18. Ugur, Mehmet & Dasgupta, Nandini, 2011. "Corruption and economic growth: A meta-analysis of the evidence on low-income countries and beyond," MPRA Paper 31226, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 May 2011.
    19. Tag, Mehmet Nasih, 2021. "Judicial institutions of property rights protection and foreign direct investment inflows," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Metaxas, Theodore & Kechagia, Polyxeni, 2017. "FDI and Terrorism in developing Asia: Approaches and Discussion," MPRA Paper 78165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Michal Mádr & Luděk Kouba, 2015. "Does the Political Environment Affect Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment? Evidence from Emerging Markets," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 63(6), pages 2017-2026.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Direct Investment; country risk rating agency; econometric model; testing and validation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:1:p:39-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.