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How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania

  • Lucian-Liviu Albu

    ()

    (Institute forEconomic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Vasile Dinu

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

Using adequate composite indicators, indeed together with other specific models, to analyse high frequency time series and to obtain sort-term forecasts can improve information for business environment, in modern era characterised by an accelerate process of changing. In our study we tried to build a composite indicator based on some monthly time series and to use it in order to obtain short-term forecasts for economic activity at national level. This indicator could be useful taking into account that actually there is no synthetic indicator to describe short-run dynamics of economic activity. To verify hypotheses of the estimating model for composite index, we used in case of Romanian economy the quarterly time series for the elements of it and quarterly published GDP as a benchmark indicator.

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Article provided by Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania in its journal The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal.

Volume (Year): 11 (2009)
Issue (Month): Number Special 3 (November)
Pages: 675-683

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Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:11:y:2009:i:number_special_3:p:675-683
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  1. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
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  7. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Inequality, Growth, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 7038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 44-50, June.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2006. "A dynamic model to estimate the long-run trends in potential GDP," MPRA Paper 3708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "DOBRESCU” Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy* - 2005 version - Yearly Forecast - actualised scenario," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(2), pages 118-123, June.
  12. Keith R. Phillips, 2004. "A new monthly index of the Texas business cycle," Working Papers 0401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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