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Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française

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  • Marie Adanero-Donderis
  • Olivier Darné
  • Laurent Ferrara

Abstract

[eng] We describe a new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicator developed by the Banque de France in order to detect, on a monthly basis, the turning points in the French economy’s acceleration cycle. The indicator is based on the methodology of Markov-switching models and uses the Bank’s monthly business survey as input. A pseudo-real-time validation since 1998 shows the indicator’s usefulness in short-term economic analysis. This type of indicator provides original qualitative information that complements standard quantitative tools for estimating GDP growth. [fre] Cet article présente un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération (IPCA) développé par la Banque de France, afin de détecter, sur un rythme mensuel, les points de retournement du cycle d’accélération de l’activité économique française. Cet indicateur est construit à partir d’un modèle à changements de régime markoviens et utilise comme information les enquêtes mensuelles dans l’industrie publiées par la Banque de France. Une validation en quasi temps réel depuis 1998 de cet indicateur souligne son utilité pour le diagnostic conjoncturel. Cet indicateur fournit une information qualitative supplémentaire par rapport aux traditionnels outils quantitatifs d’estimation du taux de croissance du PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2009_num_189_3_7927
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2009.7927
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2009.7927
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