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Detection of the industrial business cycle using SETAR models

  • Ferrara, Laurent
  • Guégan, Dominique

In this paper, we consider a threshold time series model in order to take into account certain stylized facts of the industrial business cycle, such as asymmetries in the phases of the cycle. Our aim is to point out some thresholds under (over) which a signal of turning point could be given. First, we introduce the various threshold models and we discuss both their statistical theoretical and empirical properties. Especially, we review the classical techniques to estimate the number of regimes, the threshold, the delay and the parameters of the model. Then, we apply these models to the Euro-zone industrial production index to detect, through a dynamic simulation approach, the dates of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4389.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 3.2(2005): pp. 353-372
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4389
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  1. Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 2001. "Classical And Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economics Series Working Papers 9960, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
  4. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
  5. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  6. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-148, February.
  7. Gilles DUFRENOT & Dominique GUEGAN & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLLE, 2003. "A SETAR model with long-memory dynamics," Econometrics 0309002, EconWPA.
  8. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics.
  9. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
  10. Proietti Tommaso, 1998. "Characterizing Asymmetries in Business Cycles Using Smooth-Transition Structural Time-Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, October.
  11. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-28, December.
  12. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
  13. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
  15. Gilles Dufrénot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2005. "Long-memory dynamics in a SETAR model - Applications to stock markets," Post-Print halshs-00179339, HAL.
  16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  17. Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara, 2004. "Detecting Cyclical Turning Points: The ABCD Approach and Two Probabilistic Indicators," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 193-225.
  18. Maria-Teresa Perez & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Jerry Coakley, 2001. "Numerical Issues in Threshold Autoregressive Modelling of Time Series," Working Papers wp01-09, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  19. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, December.
  20. Gilles Dufrénot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2005. "Modelling squared returns using a SETAR model with long-memory dynamics," Post-Print halshs-00179285, HAL.
  21. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  22. Cathy W. S. Chen & Mike K. P. So, 2003. "Subset threshold autoregression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 49-66.
  23. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  24. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
  25. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
  26. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  27. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
  28. Pfann, Gerard A. & Schotman, Peter C. & Tschernig, Rolf, 1996. "Nonlinear interest rate dynamics and implications for the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 149-176, September.
  29. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
  30. Agustín Maravall & Cristophe Planas, 1996. "Estimation Error and the Specification of Unobserved Component Models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9608, Banco de Espa�a.
  31. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  32. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
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