Does Linearity in the Dynamics of Inflation Gap and Unemployment Rate Matter?
This paper test the null hypothesis of linearity against a specific form of nonlinearity in the Data Generating Process (DGP) of the unemployment rate and the difference between the inflation rate (measured as the twelve months variation of CPI and CPIX1) and the inflation target, using twenty years of data (1990-2009) and time series models. The rejection of the null implies that the series has more than one regime or state. The regime switching process could explain the recent boom/bust of inflation observed during these years, or the unemployment rate after the Asian crisis, for instance. The main results are: it is not possible to reject linearity in the deviation of inflation from the inflation target. During the last twenty years, inflation has converged smoothly to the target without any regime switching. The speed of convergence to the target has been constant over the years and inflationary shocks have been dissolved with the usual degree of persistency. Finally, strong evidence is found against linearity in the unemployment rate. On the contrary, it fluctuates with high probability between states or regimes through time.
Volume (Year): 27 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Erasmo Escala 1835, 6500620 Santiago|
Phone: (562) 692-0265
Fax: (562) 692-0303
Web page: http://www.economia.uahurtado.cl/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2005.
"Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models,"
Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis,
OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
- Ferrara, Laurent & Guégan, Dominique, 2005. "Detection of the industrial business cycle using SETAR models," MPRA Paper 4389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dominique Guegan & Laurent Ferrara, 2005. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR models," Post-Print halshs-00201309, HAL.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Hansen,B.E., 1999.
"Testing for linearity,"
7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
- Javier García - Cicco & Roque Montero, 2011. "Modeling Copper Price: A Regime-Switching Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 613, Central Bank of Chile.
- Hansen Bruce E., 1997.
"Inference in TAR Models,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
- Tom Doan, . "THRESHTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's Test for Threshold Break," Statistical Software Components RTS00210, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:27:y:2012:i:1:p:3-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marcela Perticara)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.